The warming of the Mediterranean can favor the appearance of more intense thunderstorms capable of putting the security and operation of European airports in difficulties. This is warned by a study of National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) from Italy collected by Efe.
Researchers warn that, if the temperature of the Mediterranean continues to increase, conditions could become increasingly favorable for episodes of severe convection not only during the summer, but also in the autumn and winter months. This would pose a growing challenge for airport infrastructure and flight operations.
“If the Mediterranean continues to warm, it is plausible to expect potentially favorable conditions for the formation of more intense thunderstorms“explains Tommaso Albertiresearcher at INGV and main author of the work, published in the scientific journal Atmospheric Science Letters.
A change in atmospheric conditions
To analyze how the warming of the Mediterranean is influencing, the scientific team studied an electrical storm that affected the Fiumicino airport, Romeon December 13, 2024. The episode lasted for about three hours. and forced to carry out at least eight detours, in addition to causing delays and waiting patterns.
The scientists compared the atmospheric conditions of that episode with similar situations recorded during two periods: 1979-2000 and 2002-2023. The analysis reveals that the thermodynamic environment in which these meteorological configurations occur has undergone important changes.
In the most recent period, the air temperature has increased approximately two degrees Celsius in large areas of Italy, while the surface temperature of the Mediterranean has risen about 1.5 degrees in much of the basin.
The study also identifies changes in the wind shear, gusts and visibilityfactors especially relevant during some of the most delicate phases of a flight, such as takeoff and landing.
Alberti highlights that the main change is not necessarily in the atmospheric settings that generate these episodes, but in the climatic scenario in which they develop. In other words, the same weather situations can now occur in a warmer environment with greater energy availability.
More heat and humidity in the Mediterranean
The reason is related to the ability of a warmer sea to transfer greater amounts of heat and moisture to the atmosphere. This additional energy can favor very intense thunderstorms, accompanied by heavy rain, gusts of wind, reduced visibility and other adverse weather events.
He Fiumicino episode It is especially relevant because it took place in December. According to the researchers, the accumulated heat during summer can be maintained during the following months and prolong the favorable conditions for convection until the autumn and winter.
For airports, the consequences can go beyond a specific meteorological episode. Storms, wind, heavy rainfall or loss of visibility can cause diversions and delays that end up affecting other airports due to the high interconnection of the European air network.
The researchers clarify, however, that this does not mean that thunderstorms will necessarily be more frequent in all areas. The concern is that these phenomena could develop in a progressively warmer environment. and with a greater amount of energy available.
The next challenge: anticipate risk
“Quantifying this future risk will be one of the next objectives of our research“says Alberti, who focuses especially on strategic and exposed infrastructures such as large airports.
The team now intends to extend the analysis using future climate scenarios to study how severe convection could evolve and what impact it would have on the main air hubs in the Mediterranean.
The final objective is to contribute to the design of adaptation strategies that allow us to strengthen the response capacity and resilience of air transport in the face of an increasingly warm climate.