As the elections in Castilla y León already pointed out, in the current political context there is a concentration of the left-wing vote around the PSOE. The division of the parties to the left is reducing the possibilities of that space, which ends up fueling the formation of Pedro Sanchez. However, although it is true that the PSOE is growing slightly, the left-wing electorate remains very demobilized and the right continues to be, by far, the only one with a chance of winning general elections and Alberto Núñez Feijóo the only presidential candidate of all the candidates.
This complex panorama is what emerges from the latest survey prepared by NC Report for LA RAZÓN. In a general election, the PSOE would obtain 26.9% of the vote and between 107 and 109 seats. The figure has two possible readings: if it is compared with the results of 23-J, Sánchez loses no less than 4.8 points of voting intention and between 12 and 14 seats; If compared to the previous poll, in February, the PSOE has recovered and has managed to gain between five and nine deputies in just two months.
Although it is good news for the PSOE, however, it does not bring it too close to the possibility of re-editing the current coalition government because its closest partners resent it. Sumar would obtain 5.8% of the vote and between eight and nine deputies, according to the survey, one or two less than in the February survey. Podemos would be stuck at 3.8% of the vote and two deputies, when two months ago it aspired to get a third.
Between the three main parties of the national left, they aspire to add a maximum of 120 deputies, in the most optimistic part of the range. Although it is a slight improvement compared to previous polls, they do not even manage to equal the 121 that only the PSOE obtained in the previous general elections.
On the other hand, the right does grow a lot compared to the 23-J elections. The PP of Feijóo would obtain, according to the poll, 32.8% of the votes and between 140 and 142 seats. It is a striking result, because it manages to gain deputies, between three and five, despite the fact that it falls slightly in voting intention, losing 0.3 points with respect to the previous elections, which translates into more than 300,000 votes that elude it.
Of course, although it is a very good result for Feijóo, the trend is not so good: he loses between two and four seats when compared to the February poll. This concentration of the useful left vote around the PSOE is affecting the right as well. To all.
Vox would obtain 18.3% of the votes and between 63 and 64 seats. Again, comparing it with the general elections it is a complete success: it almost doubles the 33 it obtained. But comparing it with the February survey, there are nuances: voting intention grows by 0.2 points but could fall by up to two seats.
In fact, the only party that is capable of gaining seats compared to the previous poll is the PSOE. This indicates that the different campaigns that the Government is promoting, such as raising the “No to war” flag, are working for Sánchez among the left-wing electorate. This is very well observed in the transfer of votes, with 19.4% of those who voted for Sumar ensuring that they would now vote for the socialists. It is the largest vote transfer of all those registered, a fifth of its voters, a textbook concentration of votes.
But it does not serve to broaden the electoral horizon, because they are votes that move within the same spectrum, within the coalition government itself, and the left continues to suffer a significant demobilization. 16.2% of those who voted for Sumar in 2023 now assure that they would abstain. There the coalition of Yolanda Diaz He continues to take first prize and the second goes to his older brother in the Executive: 7.6% of those who voted for the PSOE would stay at home if elections were held now.
The PP and Vox, on the other hand, continue to count on the loyalty of their own. 88.7% of those who voted for Abascal would do so again and 82.5% of those who voted for Feijóo would repeat. Although in percentage terms it would seem that Vox wins the PP, the truth is that the PP retains many more ballots since Feijóo obtained 33.1% of the total vote in 2023 and Abascal less than half, 12.4%.
Where Vox does win is in the young vote. 12.5% of those aged between 18 and 29 would bet on this match. This is one of the main strengths of the formation in the current electoral cycle and it continues to maintain its type by far. They are followed behind by the PSOE with 10.4% and PP with 9.7%.