We approach the final stretch of climatological winter in Spain, which will conclude on February 28. According to the analysis of the meteorological expert Samuel Biener, from Meteored (Tiempo.com), this winter I could end without registering any cold wave in the country. Although there have been episodes of intense frosts in several areas, there has been no prolonged and generalized cold to consider a cold wave event. But, What will happen to the rains? Will stabs arrive soon in Spain?
High pressures in the north and Atlantic storms
According to the forecasts of the Meteored Reference Model, in February, the high pressures will be located on Greenland and Scandinavia, allowing the advance of deep Atlantic storms. These Atlantic upstart will bring tempered and humid air, which will cause Temperatures higher than average between 1 and 3 ° C in Spain. Besides, Abundant rainfall is expected, especially in Galicia, while in the Mediterranean, the Eastern Cantabrian and the Canary Islands will be less significant.
The main meteored model It foresees the arrival of several fronts in the next few days, with winds from the west and southwest that will promote rains and snowfall in medium and high levels of the peninsular mountain ranges. This weather situation makes the possibility of a cold wave in February very low. If this prognosis is confirmed, it would be the second consecutive winter without cold waves in Spain.
The cold waves, increasingly scarce in Spain
To consider a cold wave in Spain, certain criteria must be met: an episode of at least three consecutive days in which 10% of the weather stations record minimal temperatures below the 5% percentile in the reference period 1971 -2000. HThe date has never been documented in the month of March in Spain, which significantly reduces the possibility of one in the remaining.
Climate data show that cold waves have been decreasing in frequency and intensity in Spain during the last decades. With the exception of the extreme cold episode posterior to Filomena, severe cold events have been increasingly spaced over time. This pattern seems to continue in 2025, which reinforces the trend of less extreme winters in the country.