The global use of antibiotics for livestock could increase, in a scenario unchanged, almost 30% in 2040 compared to 2019, according to a study based on models published by Nature Communications.
A team headed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has analyzed various scenarios of the use of antibiotics linked to the evolution of world livestock biomass and the intensity of the use of these medications.
The results highlight the need to coordinate world efforts in the livestock sector to reduce the use of antibiotics, which when used in an improper and excessive way is associated with the appearance of resistance to antimicrobials, an important threat to health.
Governments have pledged to significantly reduce the amount of antimicrobials used in the agri -food system by 2030, but with the increase in demand for animal proteins for human consumption, it is uncertain how these objectives can be achieved, the publication points out.
The team considered various scenarios in which the levels of livestock biomass and the intensity of the use of antibiotics (the amount of antibiotic per unit of livestock biomass) varied.
The models suggest that, in an unchanged scenario, the amount of use of antibiotics could increase to more than 143,481 tons per year in 2040, which represents an increase of 29.5% with respect to the baseline of 2019 (110,777 tons).
The projections that use alternative scenarios suggest that moderate reductions in the intensity of the use of antibiotics (30 %decrease) can compensate for increases in the amount of antibiotic use when combined with a reduction in total livestock biomass, achieved through productivity improvements.
The scenario of greater reduction was found when the intensity of the use of antibiotics was reduced by 50% in combination with a decrease in livestock biomass (achieved through productivity improvements).
In that case, the result was a 56.8 % decrease in the amount of antimicrobials used in the sector, with projections that fall to around 62,000 tons per year by 2040.
The study highlights the large regional disparities in the planned use of antibiotics, emphasizing the need for unified world efforts in the management of livestock biomass and reducing the intensity of the use of antibiotics.
It is expected that Asia and the Pacific remain the regions that use the most antibiotics, with 65% of the world total from here to 2040, followed by South America, with approximately 19%.
The regions that experience the greatest growth in the amount of use of antimicrobials are also called to play a fundamental role in the satisfaction of the growing world demand for animal food, driven by population growth and increase in income.
The authors point out that the accuracy of these projections is limited by the lagoons in national reports, the lack of specific data by species and the absence of specific data per antibiotic class.