The asteroid 2024 YR4 It was news during the month of February for probability to hit the earth in 2032. Detected in December, space agencies estimated the possibility of colliding against our planet within 7 years in up to a 3.1 %which may not seem so much but it is the highest that had been calculated since the asteroid was detected Apophis in 2004that came to 2.7 %. This led to the UN for the first time to activate the Planetary Security Protocolswhich caused the asteroid observations to increase while it is still possible to capture it. NASA authorized the emergency use of the telescope James Webbwhich took place on March 26, and now we have new data on YR4.
The main space agencies They rule out that I can impact our planet When I spend about him in 2032, but Not to do it against the Moon. With the new data, it is estimated in a 2 % The probability of happening. And its diameter, which was calculated between 40 and 90 meters, It seems to be 60 finallywith a margin of error of ± seven meters. With this size, the collision would affect an area of Between 80 and 100 kilometers.
The truth is that there is a 98 % of possibilities that it does not happen, but if so it would be a unique opportunity for astronomers to observe this event.
Is it a danger to Earth? According to studies referred to by Wired, It would not be a problem. Yr4’s clash against our satellite would cause the detachment of material to space, but It would not fall against the planet’s surface or affect satellites in orbit.
Yr4 will remain Out of reach of the observation instruments of the Earth next May and nothing new of it can be known until it approaches the Earth again in 2028. Before disappearing from our view, the James Webb telescope, one of the most powerful and with an agenda of saturated observations, He will study it again. Then we will see if it is still possible that it clashes with the moon or, as has happened with the earth, that probability vanishes.