“They have a mess and in the end we are the ones who make the mess.” This reflection comes from a member of the PP Executive who holds a position in the autonomous region and reflects quite closely the feeling that the political movements from both sides of the last few days have left within the PP.
In theory, the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, is the one who is in trouble over the Catalan quota, over the break with Junts (the PGE will have to be extended to the end of the year), over the break with Podemos, over the distancing with Sumar, over the Koldo case and the indictment of the former minister José Luis Ábalos, over the situation of his wife, Begoña Gómez, or over what seems to be an upcoming indictment of the Attorney General of the State, Álvaro García Ortiz. He is a president hanging by a wire, but determined to fight to the end with the same cards he used in the last Legislature, the attack on the right and social populism, although this time he does not even have a majority assured to pass any of the fiscal, social or financing proposals he has announced.
With a well-scripted PP regional summit, and a powerful document in defence of equality, Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s party got into trouble last week by allowing media attention and political debate to focus on talking about Isabel Díaz Ayuso and whether or not the regional presidents will attend hypothetical meetings with the President of the Government. Meanwhile, Sánchez managed to push through a Federal Committee with no more dissenting voices than those that Moncloa already considers to be written off, those of Emiliano García Page and Javier Lambán.
In any case, all this is a flash in the pan, and where the real political game will be played in the next quarter will be in Congress, and also in the judicial sphere. In Parliament, the opposition’s window of opportunity lies in the challenge of putting together a fiscal and economic alternative that can succeed against the left’s criteria. The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, took advantage of the meeting of the Federal Committee to explain that he will govern with or without the Legislature. But even in the face of this unprecedented political position there are decisive nuances. Governing without the Legislature is not the same as governing with the Legislature against you. Or, put another way, with that alternative majority that the PP, Vox and Junts would eventually add up to (the PNV seems quite adjusted to the socialist line) working effectively to change the script for the Government.
PP and Junts have an effective channel of dialogue, while the relationship with the PNV is stagnant. This is important in light of the Government’s announcement that it will present the 2025 General State Budget. As it is a Government bill, the amendments to the whole can be a return, without an alternative text, simply with a brief statement of reasons and a simple “petitum”, that the project be returned to the Executive. The amendments would prosper if they obtain more “yes” than “no” votes: PP, Vox and Junts. And the same with the tax reforms. The impression in the PSOE is that the PGE will end up being extended at the end of this year.
Among the commitments made by the President of the Government at the start of the new political year is the announcement that he will present the deficit path to Congress again next week, the prelude to the Budgets. The previous one was rejected by the majority of Parliament. The Treasury is also working on new tax increases on funds, deposits or diesel (it is in line with what Sumar defends). And they have talked about continuing to penalize the tax on large fortunes and profits: Sumar asks for its extension to large inheritances, as well as eliminating “loopholes” in the inheritance tax and eliminating the VAT exemption, for example, for tourist housing, private universities and diesel.
Moncloa wants to mute the conversation about the Catalan quota, which goes against its interests by recovering the anti-rich and anti-large-net-worth message and in favour of workers. And although it cannot get any initiative through due to the fragmentation of the legislative block, it has proven that it is a strategy that works for it and that, in any case, in the short term, it can be useful to distract attention from Catalonia. But incurring in a textbook contradiction because it once again sets itself up as the Spanish “Robin Hood” of wealth distribution while, on the other hand, the pact with ERC for the investiture of Salvador Illa includes more privileges for a community that is in the group of the richest in Spain.
The tax debate is a “mainstream” to cover up other weak points, and even in Catalonia the new president of the Generalitat, Salvador Illa, has taken the path of Madrid. The first economic measure announced by the new Catalan government has been to tighten the taxation of the Hard Rock Café, the great gambling, tourism and leisure project in Tarragona, which in theory would involve an investment of 2,000 million. The tax increase is from 10% to 55%. This increase in taxation calls into question the viability of this project. The president has also agreed with the mayor of Barcelona, Jaume Collboni, to increase the tourist tax on short-stay cruises.