Humanity has exceeded the carrying capacity of the Earthexceeding the limits of resource regeneration necessary to maintain the population stably. This is determined by research led by Professor Corey Bradshaw, from Flinders University (Australia)recently published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.
He study, which analyzes two centuries of demographic data, warns that current consumption levels, added to population growth, compromise global stability if there is no profound transformation in energy and food management.
The Research defines “carrying capacity” as the maximum limit of individuals that an ecosystem can sustain in the long term. according to the availability and renewal of its natural resources.
According to the authors, Human beings have managed to expand these limits artificially and temporarily thanks to technological innovation. and, fundamentally, the intensive use of fossil fuels.
The report details that modern economies, oriented towards continuous growth, have not integrated the regenerative limitations of the planet.
In this sense, The use of non-renewable energy has made it possible to compensate for the gap between human demand and what the Earth can produce naturally.creating a false perception of sustainability.
Optimal population versus future projections
One of the highlights of the study is the distinction between theoretical maximum capacity and sustainable optimal capacity.
- Optimal capacity: Estimated at 2.5 billion people.
- Current population: Reaches 8.3 billion inhabitants.
- Future projection: A peak of between 11.7 and 12.4 billion people is expected by the end of the 21st century.
Corey Bradshaw highlights that the current rate of resource use is unsustainable and that the natural system is under extreme pressure.
Although population growth has slowed since the 1960s—entering a “negative demographic phase”—the environmental impact continues to increase due to the intensity of global consumption and emissions. “The Earth can’t keep up with our resource use. It can’t even sustain current demand without major changes,” Bardshaw said.
Prospects for global stability
The work concludes that humanity faces a structural challenge. Rising consumption, despite slowing population growth in some regions, continues to deplete ecosystem services.
Without a radical change in resource use and an energy transition that dispenses with artificial compensation for fossil fuels, researchers warn that the stability of the systems that support human life will be seriously harmed in the coming decades.