Spanish policy starts September under the smoke of summer fires and creak of a judicial agenda that threatens to mark the coming months. The new course It opens with the consolidation of the electoral expectations with which parliamentary activity was dismissed before summer.
According to the NC Report survey for La Razón, prepared between September 1 and 6, The PP consolidates its leadership with 35.2% of the votes and up to 156 seats, while the PSOE collapses to 25.8% And he would barely reach between 103 and 105 deputies with respect to the 121 he currently has. The PP would add 213,596 votes more than in July 2023, while the PSOE would lose almost 1.7 million.
The socialist fall drags to add, which drops to 4.9% – two years were in 12.3% – and would stay in just seven or eight seats. In the space on the left, we can only, with 5.2%, manages to stay afloatalthough still far from being decisive. Abstention grows up to 36.9%, three points more than in 2023, a sign of political disaffection in a country that enters an autumn marked by polarization and institutional wear.
The assessment of leaders also anticipates a little promising future for Moncloa. Pedro Sánchez barely reaches an average grade of 3.8, well below the 4.4 that Alberto Núñez Feijóo obtains. Santiago Abascal stays at 3.2 and Yolanda Díaz, at 3.1. None manages to approve, but the difference in favor of the PP leader corresponds to the political advantage: Feijóo not only loyalty to 87.6% of its 2023 voters, but attracts 9.2% of ancient socialists and up to 7.9% of Vox electorate.
The socialist bleeding is reflected in the fidelity data: only 69.1% of those who voted for the PSOE in 2023 would now repeat their choice. The rest is dispersed between abstention (12.9%), Podemos (1.5%), add (2%) and, most significant, the PP, which manages to seduce almost one in ten former voters of Sánchez. The escape towards the center-right confirms that the PSOE faces not only a mobilization problem, but also of credibility to an electorate who no longer buys the speech of “resistance.”
For the PP, the survey confirms that the path to Moncloa is to manage the relationship with Vox with skill. The Abascal increase three points compared to 2023, reach 15.4% and could reach 50 deputies. The PP-Vox sum would move between 202 and 206 seats, well above the absolute majority. It is a scenario that reinforces the strategic weight of Vox, with a high loyalty (87.7%), and 7.9% of its old voters that look at the PP, while, conversely, the percentage is 7.5. LCompetition on the right is a dog’s face, but, for now, it does not remain, but multiplies.
On the left, however, fragmentation is a determining ballast. Adding barely retains 29.4% of its electorate, While 32.5% are already inclined to Podemos and 17.6% take refuge in the PSOE. The platform led by Yolanda Díaz is a drift project.
In Catalonia and the Basque Country, nationalist parties maintain stable positions, without major changes in seats, although The BNG manages to grow a deputy (possibly, of summer fires).
The generational thermometer also provides keys. The PP devastates between those over 65, where 29% of the vote is touched, and is first force in all age forks. The PSOE, on the other hand, does not lead in any segment and loses especially among young people, where it barely reaches 11.8%, compared to 12.5% of the PP and 10.4% Vox. The young vote disperses and abstains: almost half of those under 30 would stay at home, which is another worrying symptom for the left, which has historically been sustained in the mobilization of new generations. The unknown is whether Feijóo will know how to capitalize on this advantage without the hug with Vox subtracting him into the center.
In Genoa they believe that government wear is already irreversible and that it is only necessary to wait for the legislature to collapse on its own. But in politics the times are decisive: the pressure of the judicial agenda, the management of climatic crises and their effect on the next regional elections can introduce unbelieved changes. In any case, In this post -bascopic photograph, the PP strengthens as a clear government alternative, the PSOE suffers discredit, Vox resists and grows, and the left to the left of the Socialists continues to bleed in intestine struggles.