In 2015, around 195 countries committed to limiting the increase in the planet’s average temperature to 2 degrees Celsius (°C) above the temperature prevailing in the pre-industrial era. At that time, the average global temperature had risen by 1°C.
Subsequently, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a non-binding challenge to countries: limit the increase to 1.5 °C in order to reduce the effects of climate change to more manageable levels for the international community. To achieve this, it was determined that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be reduced by 50% by 2030 and net zero emissions must be achieved by 2050.
The European Union’s Copernicus Centre for Climate Studies announced that February 2024 will have seen 12 consecutive months of warming of 1.5°C or more. Unfortunately, international climatologists say we are on track to breach the stipulated 2°C limit.
What is the basis for the forecast? Certain developments are conducive to failure to meet the international target:
India, the world’s third-largest GHG emitter, has announced that it will not achieve net-zero emissions until 2070. Recently, its electricity demand has increased dramatically due to extreme heat. In response, it has announced that it will take even longer because its priority is to meet the increase in electricity demand to protect health and prevent premature deaths from extreme temperatures. To do so, it will maintain and double the burning of coal by 2030.
China (the largest GHG emitter), Russia (fifth), Indonesia (sixth) and Brazil (seventh) have all reported achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2060.
The war between Russia and Ukraine diverts substantial amounts of funds intended to convert electricity generation to renewable sources. This impacts Russia, the United States and the European Union, three of the five entities that emit the most GHG.
The war between Hamas and Israel also diverts funds from Israel and the United States intended to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy.
On the other hand, the operation of artificial intelligence (AI) centers requires astronomical amounts of electricity. These centres in the European Union exert a demand equivalent to that of Portugal, Greece and the Netherlands combined. Demand for AI centers in the United States is also significant. Many countries already have such centers or are in the process of establishing them, delaying achieving net-zero emissions globally.
Meanwhile, international financing of coal-fired power plants continues. The largest contributors are China, the United States, Germany and India. The International Energy Agency confirms the non-compliance. This international body predicts that by 2030 coal burning will increase by 32% and oil burning by 8%.
The UN predicts that the average global temperature increase will reach 2.8 °C by 2050 if greater efforts are not made.
How is Puerto Rico affected?
The impacts of climate change here will be much more severe.
Recently, the Committee of Experts and Advisors on Climate Change (CEACC) released the results of a study that reveals that If the average global temperature rises by 2 °C, the economy would lose $379,270 million by 2050, there would be damage to homes and a reduction in personal savings of $161,000 million and damage to productive infrastructure of $1,475,665 million. If the increase exceeds 2°C, the socioeconomic effects would be disproportionately greater.
Sea levels will rise faster, limiting the lifespan of critical infrastructure and homes on vulnerable land. We will have more intense episodes of sweltering heat. Aside from endangering the lives of our seniors, these extreme temperatures will cause more blackouts because our fragile electrical system cannot handle current demand on days of extreme heat, much less if the heat increase doubles or triples.
The frequency and intensity of hurricanes will increase. If we do not take urgent action, rising sea levels will salt up our aquifers. This is happening in the Southern Aquifer. Droughts and water rationing will increase. Access to food will also be reduced due to problems with cultivation in countries that produce 85% of our supplies. Last year, India banned rice exports because severe drought reduced crops.
We could conclude that we cannot intervene in these wars and international events, and resign ourselves to the worst.
My position is that we cannot sit back and do nothing. I call for preparation. We can implement adaptation and resilience measures with a sense of urgency. The CEACC submitted the Climate Change Mitigation, Adaptation and Resilience Plan (MARCC Plan) which contains 156 courses of action and more than 800 short, medium and long-term strategies to protect the life, health and property of people in Puerto Rico.
The Plan includes actions to protect critical infrastructure and measures to ensure economic development. After Hurricane Maria, we all suffered from not having critical infrastructure for months. Imagine if it lasted much longer.
I urge the next Legislative Assembly to give the MARCC Plan the priority it deserves. We cannot waste any more time. We urgently need to fully prepare ourselves to protect ourselves from the foreseeable effects of climate change.