The President of the Government’s electoral strategy team is playing with the Andalusian elections. As LA RAZÓN has learned, the political analysis circulating in Moncloa and Ferraz is as follows: the polls for the elections that will get Andalusians to vote next year will be the thermometer that Pedro Sánchez will use to make a move. The sources consulted explain that a scenario of an absolute majority for the PP would be a very hard blow that would leave the PSOE and its own leader practically sentenced.
Andalusia is a key autonomous community. Not only because it is the most populated in Spain, but because a defeat by María Jesús Montero – first vice president and “number two” of the party – It would be a defeat for Pedro Sánchez. Therefore, the president could call the general elections at the same time to mobilize the progressive electorate and try to cushion the blow. In the event that the demoscopy showed a simple majority scenario in which Juanma Moreno needed Vox to govern, Sánchez could press the button shortly after to repeat the 23-J strategy and launch the ultra alert that gave him such good results two years ago.
The socialists have been inflating Vox for months; offering cultural wars, such as abortion or Francoism, with which to sweep away the PP’s options to establish itself as an alternative. Sánchez’s plan involves crushing the Spanish with the idea that Santiago Abascal’s party may be becoming the main party on the right. The dichotomy that the president wants to provoke is not between the PSOE and the PP, but between the PSOE and Vox. That’s the goal. And with this, bring together all the possible leftist votes..
Sánchez knows that it is difficult for him to continue in Moncloa
In truth, the President of the Government is aware that it is very difficult for him to remain in Moncloa. Therefore, their trump card is to maintain total control of the party for a stage in which, predictably, the right can govern. All the changes that occurred in the federal congress almost a year ago in Seville were designed so that “Sanchismo” would take all the key positions. That is the reason why Sánchez parachuted several of his ministers, who landed in the federal addresses of Aragon, Madrid, Andalusia or Valencian Community.
The PSOE, in any case, knows that it has time. And only the president knows what he will ultimately do. In politics, one week can completely change expectation, and therefore action. But, and this is another of the analyzes carried out in Moncloa, if Sánchez can extend the legislature it is fundamentally due to the fact that Junts also needs time. The socialist leader knows that he will not be able to count on Carles Puigdemont not at all important.
Neither General State Budgets nor far-reaching political reforms, such as the one that the justice minister, Félix Bolaños, wants to carry out in Justice. But he also knows that the former Catalan president also needs time. Junts cannot cause the head of the Executive to fall in a motion of censure, because it could alter the correlation of forces in Catalonia, as if it were a domino effect. Puigdemont wants to appear there without the stain of having collaborated with the PSOE in exchange for an amnesty that only the Constitutional Court, in the spring, will decide if it can be applied to the former Catalan president.
Post-convergents, therefore, also need time. The growth of Alianza Catalana keeps them awake at night and breaking the board could affect them more. That is the tranquility of the Government, which will use this time to continue feeding the most reactionary right in the country. Sánchez knows that the electorate is hyper-mobilized. And the rest of the parties, which are also smelling the electoral cycle that may open next year, are already oiling their machinery.
Some within the PSOE, however, warn that Sánchez’s position has distanced the party from the center-left in which the majority of Spaniards place themselves. A source familiar with the party’s demoscopy regrets that, at the moment, citizens place the PSOE further to the left than the bulk of the country’s social majority. And from there, it becomes difficult to build majorities. That’s why, There are sectors in Ferraz that demand that Sánchez be more central to facing the polls.