Carles Puigdemont Last Monday, Junts’ decision to break with the PSOE was staged, a turn that the militants endorsed a few days later. Despite the clarity with which the post-convergents are expressing themselves, now placing themselves in the opposition and telling Pedro Sánchez that “he may occupy seats” but “he will not be able to govern”, the Government has preferred to turn a deaf ear and continue betting on what they call “dialogue”. A dialogue that, on the other hand, seems futile because Junts considers the negotiations broken. They have left the table.
But apart from political calculations and interested fussing, what real impact will the supposed rupture have on citizens? LA RAZÓN has analyzed the main bills that are being processed in Congress or on which the Executive is working and the position of Junts and other parties before them, to see if they have the possibility of being saved or are doomed. The conclusion advanced is that everything seems to lead to a deadlock in the legislature, in which only minor initiatives will move forward.
They are presumed dead
The main rule that seems impossible to overcome are the Budgets. Neither does the spending ceiling, its previous step although not essential. Mainly, because Junts has already verbalized that it will not approve them. “He will not be able to approve Budgets,” said Puigdemont in his appearance last Monday. There are some partners, such as the PNV, who ask the Government to try to recompose the majority around these accounts, and there are sources from Moncloa who say that they believe they can save them if obscene items for Catalonia are included, but it seems a very difficult task. Furthermore, before Junts slammed the door, the general accounts were already in danger because Podemos is also setting impossible conditions for their approval. “Puigdemont announced on Monday that there would be no Budget… as if there would have been one before it was broken,” a parliamentary source noted this week.
Another rule that can be considered dead is the modification of the Criminal Procedure Law (LECrim)announced by Minister Félix Bolaños this week. She already has the no from PP and Vox and Junts has been leaking to the media that she will not support her. Furthermore, its spokesperson in Congress, Míriam Nogueras, publicly criticized that the Executive presented it without having support. On the other hand, in an interview in this newspaper, Puigdemont’s lawyer, Gonzalo Boye, was radically against the Prosecutor’s Office directing the criminal investigation.
This first week of November there will be no Plenary Session in Congress (there is never one in the first weeks of the month) and your honorable Members will meet again starting on the 4th. If ERC so wishes, it will be able to debate its singular financing agreement for Catalonia, agreed with the PSC to invest Salvador Illa. But if he does, Republicans are assured that he will falter. Junts has been complaining for months that it is not a sufficient agreement and, given the impossibility of joining positions, it is practically considered dead. The only possibility for it not to decline is for them to abstain, but it will be understood that they have facilitated it and will allow a political victory for the PSOE and ERC, something they do not want to promote.
It also seems that the Media Lawwhich includes fines for those who do not comply with the transparency that the Government wants to demand, because Junts has already been against it in the past and there is no possibility now of bringing closer positions.
And all those initiatives that are essentially economic, labor, tax, etc. are not going to have a better luck. Throughout the entire legislature, Junts has been positioning itself in these matters and constantly in the right-wing bloc, to which it belongs ideologically if its pro-independence nature is not taken into account. A perfect example is when he contributed to overturning the reduction of Yolanda Díaz’s working hours due to the pressures of the Catalan employers, which are constant.
They could be saved
Although Junts assures that the rupture is total, there are several initiatives that will be able to move forward. They are simply not going to vote no. Either because they consider that they are good for Catalonia (that is the scale that Puigdemont set to decide the vote, although without negotiating), or because they are issues on which they do not want to take responsibility for them failing.
For example, the validation of the royal decree to finance the ALS Law. Míriam Nogueras has already said this week that she will vote in favor. What’s more, there have even been attempts to appropriate the measure. The Executive is planning to put it to a vote in the second week of November and Sumar believes that they will be able to overcome Junts’ vetoes by presenting laws of a social nature, something that the left can also feed off of.
There are also laws, such as Customer Servicein which Junts has specific interests because the Government has already made the transfers they request. In this, the Executive agreed to include that large companies serve in the co-official languages and, while its processing progresses in Congress, nothing seems to indicate that they will not want to note that achievement. Furthermore, the different parliamentary groups have also managed to introduce their own amendments, so majority support could be taken for granted.
Another example along this line would be Civil Procedure Lawin which Junts has already reached agreements with the Government, or that of Protection of Minors in Digital Environmentsfor the same reason. Although, with the volatile nature of the situation, we will never know until the moment of truth.
Support for the project could also be taken for granted. law that declares various initiatives and programs as events of exceptional public interest. This includes financing for multiple events in Catalonia, such as the Primavera Sound music festival, the celebration of the Gaudí centenary in 2026 or the Barcelona Mobile World Capital. Voting against would be torpedoing free funding.
With this type of measures, the Government will be able to sell that things continue to be approved in the Congress of Deputies and that the paralysis is not such. The problem is that they are very minor measures, which usually go unnoticed, have no political burden and which, apart from affecting a specific group, are very complicated to make profitable.
On the tightrope
However, the big question to clear up is what will happen to those laws on which Junts has not yet taken a position, nor is it clear if they will get anything positive if they support them. For example, the Official Secrets Lawan initiative that the PNV requested and it is not clear what the position of the post-convergents is, who also enjoy announcing the direction of their vote at the last moment. Furthermore, in this specific law the Government is going to have to satisfy many partners, such as ERC or Bildu, and it is a real mess.
It is similar, that it is not really known what Junts thinks, with measures such as the Industry Law or the reform of the General Electoral Regime, with which the Government wants to make electoral debates mandatory. It could be said that they are laws that, for the moment, are on a tightrope and waiting to see what happens. There are also other rules, such as Family Law wave Popular Legislative Initiative to regularize migrants that have been paralyzed in Congress for so long that, although there is no definitive no, nothing indicates that they are going to get underway, even less so if Congress is going to enter a stage of slowing down parliamentary activity.
All those royal decrees that the Lower House approves, but that are later processed as a bill, are also complicated. The parties may be in favor of its not declining, but not of its approval as proposed by the Government, and Junts’ demands may complicate the matter. As, for example, could happen with the Birth permits for Yolanda Díaz.
Finally, there are laws that are in danger not because Junts is necessarily going to vote against, but because of the crossed interests of different political parties. The Government usually boasts of its ability to reach agreements, but from now on it seems that it will have very little room for maneuver. Goes with the Lobby Lawin which the independence party is demanding powers over local officials, but that may harm the possibility of reaching an agreement with the PP. Same with the Public Service Lawwhere he has the yes of Junts thanks to some issues that Podemos rejects. If it was already difficult before, from now on it will be much more so.