The lithium that powers mobile phones, the cobalt that powers electric cars and the nickel that makes up the latest generation batteries are no longer just raw materials, they have become central pieces of the global geopolitical chessboard. And, in several countries, in the source of financing for armed conflicts that leave thousands of victims.
This is what he warned Rosemary DiCarlo, UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, during an emergency session of the Security Council dedicated to analyzing the risks – and opportunities – brought about by the accelerated exploitation of so-called “critical minerals.” According to Di Carlo, this is an issue that “will determine the future of hundreds of millions of people.”
A business with a dark side
Global trade in these minerals reached 2.5 trillion dollars in 2023, equivalent to 10% of global trade. and projections indicate that this figure could triple by 2030 and quadruple by 2040, driven by the transition towards green technologies. However, behind these figures lies a contradiction that worries the international community. “While these resources can lift countries out of poverty, their irresponsible extraction is fueling wars, human rights abuses and environmental destruction,” DiCarlo told the United Nations Security Council.
The example that most starkly illustrates this paradox is the Democratic Republic of the Congo, country where 70% of the world’s cobalt is extracted, an essential component for telephone and electric vehicle batteries. There, armed groups such as the M23 would obtain more than a million dollars per month through illicit mining, according to reports from the UN itself. “Control of mineral-rich areas not only finances violence, but weakens governance and perpetuates cycles of conflict”explained the senior United Nations official, who recalled that the Security Council already applies sanctions to actors who trade with these resources in the DRC, Libya and Somalia.
A phenomenon that repeats
The problem, United Nations data highlights, is not exclusive to Africa. In Myanmar, rich in rare earths – key to the manufacture of high-tech magnets – Illegal mining economically supports different armed groups in the midst of the internal conflict. In Ukraine, the war has paralyzed much of the country’s mining potential, despite having strategic reserves of titanium and lithium that will be crucial for its reconstruction.
Latin America is not immune to tensions either. The region known as the “lithium triangle”—made up of Argentina, Bolivia and Chile—concentrates some of the largest deposits on the planet, but it faces the constant claim of indigenous communities who denounce forced displacements and contamination of aquifers due to extractive activity.
Historic opportunity
Despite this dark side, DiCarlo assures that these resources also represent a historic opportunity. “If managed well, they can be an engine of sustainable development, create decent jobs and even help build peace” and supports his statement by citing three cases that serve as a model: Chile, which has reached agreements with indigenous communities to exploit lithium under environmental standards and with local participation; Norway, which reinvests its oil revenues in renewable energy and social funds for the next generations and Rwanda, which managed to reduce mineral smuggling through digital certification systems and regional cooperation.
“We cannot allow the energy transition to repeat the mistakes of the oil era, where the wealth of a few left misery and conflict in its wake,” warned DiCarlo, for whom the international community must act immediately so that critical minerals become “a force for good, not for war.”
Role in the energy transition
In parallel to the political discussion, An analysis by the World Economic Forum (WEF) together with the Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) at Columbia University provides a complementary reading, critical minerals have become the strategic basis of the energy transition, the digital economy and global supply chains, and their availability will set the pace at which the world can deploy new technologies and strengthen its security.
The Securing Minerals for Energy and Technologies (SMET) report, prepared together with the CGEP, maintains that the main obstacle to expanding supply is not geological or financial in the broad sense, but rather the difficulty of transforming mining projects into investments that are attractive and financeable for private capital.
According to the study, there is no single formula applicable to all minerals or regions; policies must be designed considering three variables—the market structure of each mineral, the risk profile of the country where the project is located, and the stage of development in which it is located. This approach, the report maintains, makes it possible to apply more precise financial instruments, avoid generalized subsidies and promote the arrival of more private capital.
The underlying message is clear, ensuring resilient supply chains requires governments, financial institutions, mining companies, manufacturers and buyers to coordinate instruments that reduce risks, provide predictability to income and accelerate investment at the most critical points of the value chain.
The roadmap
Looking to the future, The UN is preparing a global summit for 2027 in which it will seek to establish a binding framework on responsible mining. Meanwhile, the Security Council will continue to evaluate measures – including new sanctions – to sever the link between mineral exploitation and the financing of armed conflicts.
The question that remains is whether, as Rosemary DiCarlo said, critical minerals will end up being a curse or a blessing for future generations.