General election survey: the PP soars to 155 seats

The June poll, carried out in the week after the European elections, places the PP at 153-155 seats. In the last general elections, 150 seats were the symbolic figure at which the bar was set that would guarantee the PP to reach the government, but the popular ones remained at 137 deputies. Today, according to the NC Report survey, if general elections are held they would have 34.4% of the votes, with a growth of more than 220,000 bins and between 16 and 18 more seats. Vox would drop from the current 33 seats to the level of 28/29, leaving behind more than half a million votes and between four and five seats in Parliament. Nevertheless. The sum of the two parties would remain well above the 176 seats of the absolute majority, standing in the range of 181-184.

In this survey, the most significant, and with the most political impact, is the collapse of Sumar, which falls from 31 seats to between 9 and 10, with more than a million and a half voters who would stop repeating their support for the acronym that elected in the last general elections. These votes do not go to the PSOE, which loses more than half a million, just like Vox, although Pedro Sánchez's party does hold out in seats. Today they have 121 seats and the survey gives them 120/122.

The coalition would remain at 129-132 seats, so Sánchez could not repeat the government even by reissuing his current investiture pact. Sumar is bleeding electorally in a week in which the poor results in the European elections have precipitated the move to Yolanda Díaz's side in her organic responsibilities, although she maintains the vice presidency of the Government and the Labor portfolio. At the moment, a period of reorganization has begun in which the different acronyms that make up this platform are assessing the weight they have in the project and whether it is electorally worthwhile for them to remain within this salad of left-wing brands.

NC REPORT Leaders RatingA. CruzThe reason

In this context, Podemos does not compensate for this collapse of the platform that they cooked up “ad hoc” in Moncloa to benefit in the last general elections from the pull that Díaz had then, and that has not been restrained in any of the electoral processes that have been held. since then. The purple ones increase by more than 800,000 votes, but the division of the left penalizes the total sum since this improvement remains in a representation of only two deputies.

The Congress would turn to the right in a notable way if there were elections today, because the Se Acabó la Fiesta brand, which has burst into the European elections, could get a million votes and enter Congress with 6/7 deputies.

On the pro-independence side, the only ones who could move from their current representation, to improve it, are Junts, which could suffer from 7 to between 8/9, and EH Bildu, which could rise by one seat. In the general elections it already surpassed the PNV by one deputy.

In the analysis of vote loyalty, the two main parties prevail over the others, with a clear difference in favor of the PP. That of the voters of Feijóo's party reaches 90.3%, and that of the PSOE stands at 79.7%. Vox's is at 70.5%, while Sumar's falls to 36.5% and Podemos's to 23.8%. The vote transfer from the PP to Vox drops to 3 percent, due to the 8.6% flight of voters from Vox to the popular acronym.

NC REPORT SurveyA. CruzThe reason

This demographic framework explains why Moncloa is reluctant to consider an early call for the general elections: its numbers also confirm that it would not be enough for them to remain in power. For this reason, for example, they have activated an ERC seduction campaign while trying to build the story that a new fiscal agreement is possible that recognizes the “singularity” of Catalonia. The Republicans, divided and in a deep internal crisis, have a problem if there is a repeat election in Catalonia, but, at the same time, they also need to separate from the PSOE and the PSC if they want to survive politically. The new financing model that they are talking about in Moncloa recovers, without calling it that, the idea of ​​the fiscal pact with Catalonia (the Catalan-style agreement that the independentists demand). Although Moncloa ignores it, ERC has also placed on the negotiating table moving towards consultation and recovering issues that the TC overturned in the 2006 Statute reform, such as judicial autonomy.

To advance on this path of achieving the support of ERC, Moncloa has started in parallel another campaign against the president of Castilla-La Mancha, Emiliano García-Page, who has emerged as the most critical voice within the PSOE against this bilateral tax negotiation . For example, from Moncloa comes the data, which has been published by related media, which says that Catalonia is the third community that contributes the most to the common regime and the eleventh to receive, while Castilla-La Mancha occupies fourteenth place in both cases. On the other hand, ERC does not want to negotiate with the PSC and prefers to do so directly with Madrid: privately he is telling them that his relationship with Junts will always be subordinate, contrary to what has happened so far since his inauguration. After the electoral collapse of ERC, Moncloa is spreading the word that this party can acquire the role that CiU once had in Madrid from the left (obviously there is no majority in Congress without counting on the votes of Junts, so the proposals leftists of ERC cannot move forward).