Juanma Moreno wears a smart ring on the index finger of her left hand that, among other functions, controls the quality of sleep. The Andalusian president confessed in his book «Coexistence manual» who suffers from severe chronic insomnia. The Andalusian electoral hangover left a political paradox and woke the popular people from the dream of an absolute majority. The PP won the 17-M elections clearly, well ahead of the rest of the forces, but it was two seats short of the 55 for stability and with them it also lost part of the margin of institutional strength that had turned the last legislature into a political anomaly in Spain. The Popular Party fell by just 1.5% in percentage of the vote compared to the previous elections, although the electoral law resulted in a drop of close to 10% of its seats: from 58 deputies to 53, two from the absence “of the mess.” Moreno noted that the absolute majority escaped “by 21,000 votes”, broken down into 11,000 votes in Granada and 10,000 in Jaén. The acting Andalusian president appeared first in Madrid, at the National Board of Directors of the PP chaired by Feijóo, and called for today in Seville the regional leadership of the party to analyze a political scenario that, despite the victory, forces the squaring of the circle.
Moreno insisted that his intention is to govern “alone”, with a “one-color” Executive and specific parliamentary agreements. “The result is very good and gives us room for maneuver to be able to govern alone,” defended the popular leader, who considered that it would not be “reasonable or sensible” for Vox to aspire to enter the future Andalusian Government. The president of the PP-A wanted to establish his own profile in the face of the ideological demands of the Abascal party and issued a warning to sailors: “We are going to defend the Andalusian priority,” he responded when asked about the “national priority” of Vox.
Moreno’s strategy is reminiscent, saving the distance, of that followed in other territories by popular leaders who initially tried to avoid formal coalitions with Vox. In Abascal’s formation they interpret the message as a premature declaration. The general secretary of Vox, Ignacio Garriga, warned that his party does not intend to “waste this opportunity” and made it clear that its deputies “are going to condition” the next Andalusian Government. Although Vox has not requested advice for now, it does anticipate a demanding negotiation. “We will assert our votes with humility, responsibility and awareness of proportionality,” Garriga said. Sources from the party even hinted that Moreno runs the risk of “marking a Guardiola”, in reference to the Extremaduran president who ended up agreeing with Vox after initially resisting. The candidate Manuel Gavira claimed to be key to governability: “Andalusians have made it clear to the PP that it must come to terms with Vox.” In statements to RNE and Antena 3, Gavira insisted on the campaign’s message that what Vox wants is to “change the course” of the community. “The national priority is possible, and it has been done in Extremadura, and it will be done in Aragon and Castilla y León,” he insisted. «There are many people who are in a hurry to share the seats. “We are in a great hurry to change course in Andalusia and in the policies that exist,” he defended.
In parallel, the left closed ranks around an idea: not facilitating Moreno’s investiture. The PSOE flatly rejected an abstention and the socialist federal leadership tried to separate the Andalusian result from the national scenario. The official thesis of the PSOE-A now consists of presenting the parliamentary dependence on Vox as a political crack for Moreno. Nor is the alternative left willing to facilitate a popular government. Adelante Andalucía also emerges as the force that emerges strengthened from 17-M. José Ignacio García ruled out any abstention and assumed an understanding between PP and Vox, while Antonio Maíllo assured that his project is “antagonistic” to Moreno’s. “We are not going to fool around with the PP,” said the leader of Por Andalucía, pointing out that “he cannot have any considerations with someone who has collapsed the health system.”
With the new Parliament, Andalusia enters a negotiation phase of uncertain geometry. Moreno won, but he can no longer govern alone. Vox defends the strategic value of its deputies and does not seem willing to give away stability for free. Regarding whether he rules out a repeat election, Moreno stated that this is the “last resort” because citizens do not want it, it represents a significant economic cost and does not guarantee that “the result will change.” For now, Moreno shows that governability must be under control and he does not lose sleep, attentive to the ring, not to govern them all like Tolkien’s, but, at least, to control cortisol on your particular journey to the mountain of destiny.