There are more and more studies that warn of the consequences that climate change could have on large European cities. Recently, a report prepared by AXA Climate predicted an increase in temperatures in Madrid of 5.5 ºCreaching a climate similar to that of Marrakech in the next 25 years. However, the capital of Spain I wouldn’t be the only one affected due to global warming.
If measures are not taken to alleviate this trend of rising temperatures, the economy of the large cities of southern Europe would be greatly affected, especially during the summer months, as predicted. Carsten Brzeski. The global director of Macroeconomic Research and chief Eurozone economist for the ING group has warned that These changes could begin to be noticed within the next two years.
Without going any further, Last July 2026 was the hottest recorded in Spainwith an average temperature of 27.1 ºC and an anomaly of 2.7 ºC with respect to the figures recorded between 1991 and 2020. Likewise, between the months of June and July there was a streak of 49 consecutive days of temperatures above the historical average. Something that, although it did not have an impact on tourism, could end up causing a drop in the number of visitors the country receives in the summer months.
Tourists could stop choosing Spain for their holidays due to high temperatures
This is what the prestigious German economist has warned the French newspaper Les Echos, paying special attention to cities such as Madrid, Barcelona or Rome. “The change will be gradual; no one will cancel their vacation because of this summer’s heat wave. However, Over the next two years, summer tourism in Europe’s economies will be affected“warns Brzeski.
The high temperatures recorded in these cities will cause stop being a destination that is attractive to tourists in the summer months, who will opt for other alternatives in northern Europe. That is, as the expert predicts, a growing trend of “cold weather vacations” like those that can be found in countries such as Scandinavia, Iceland or Finland, among others.
The problem lies, as the economist explains, in whether the arrival of tourists in slightly cooler months such as June or September will be enough to compensate for the loss of tourists in the main summer months or, on the contrary, the economies of countries such as Spain, Greece or Italy will be significantly affected by this issue. Well, as he warns, “Tourism represents between 13% and 15% of GDP“of said nations.
“The impact could be considerable for Mediterranean countries, although this scenario is not yet written. Going to the beach with temperatures of 40 degrees will no longer be an attractive optionbut other regions could benefit. As with mountain areas in France, regions like Galicia could attract more visitors,” explains Carsten Brzeski.
Northern Europe would increase its tourism during the summer
Likewise, it expresses its concern for the countries of northern Europe, whose infrastructure and population may not be prepared for a considerable increase in the influx of tourists. Firstly, he warns that they will have to make an investment to adapt their individual tourism model to a larger scale one such as the one usually received in the Mediterranean area.
Something that, although it would benefit the economy of these countries, could cause problems of acceptance by their citizens. “Thus a question arises: Could situations similar to those in Mallorca arise, where many residents say they are tired of the constant arrival of tourists throughout the year?“, reflects the economist.
All of this shows that the effects that climate change could cause in countries They not only affect their temperatures or the increase in extreme weather eventsbut also to its economy. Especially in terms of the influx of tourists who could stop choosing Spanish and Mediterranean cities and beaches to spend their holidays in cooler destinations.