Miami (USA) – The hurricane season began this Monday with optimistic forecasts in the Atlantic, where experts foresee below-average activity, although they asked not to let their guard down, remembering the powerful Cyclone Andrew, which in 1992 devastated southern Florida in a year also considered calm.
Estimates from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States They predict that the Atlantic region will receive up to 6 hurricanes and 14 named storms until November 30, when the hurricane season ends.
A figure lower than the historical average that is attributed to the almost certain appearance of ‘El Niño’ this summer, a meteorological phenomenon that reduces the probability of hurricanes, but which meteorologists emphasize does not imply that the intensity of the storms will be less.
1 / 10 | Enthusiasm in San Juan for the visit of the hurricane hunter plane: this is what it looks like from the inside. In preparation for the hurricane season, the hurricane hunter plane returned to San Juan, specifically to the Isla Grande airport, after more than a decade of absence. – Pablo Martínez Rodríguez
“We have some examples from previous years, such as in 1992, when Hurricane Andrew made landfall in southern Florida, specifically in Homestead, and caused enormous damage. That was a below-average year,” meteorologist Haiyan Jiang, a professor at Florida International University (FIU), told EFE.
That hurricane took Florida out of the complacency in which it had lived after decades without suffering the direct impact of a category 5 hurricane, and forced it to tighten housing construction and action protocols after causing 65 deaths, destroying some 64,000 homes and leaving more than 1.4 million homes without electricity as it passed through the United States.
Andrew, the first storm of that season, did not form until August and, after a period of apparent calm, ended up becoming the costliest natural disaster recorded until then in the United States, with damages estimated at $27 billion.
Drones in the eye of the hurricane
Nearly 34 years later, the technology and tools available for forecasting have vastly improved, according to Jiang, although he clarified that “there is always uncertainty in forecasting the path of a hurricane.”
To reduce that margin of error, NOAA will launch several new observation systems this year, such as drones that will be able to get closer to developing storms and improve the accuracy of intensity forecasts “by approximately 10%,” government agency administrator Neil Jacobs told reporters.
They will also enhance the use of artificial intelligence in forecasting systems or in unmanned surface and underwater vehicles, and will test a new version of the cone of uncertainty, which predicts the future trajectory of the center of storms.
“67 percent of the time the center remains inside the cone; the remaining third remains outside. Taking this new approach is a big step forward in actually representing about 90 percent of the possibilities of where the center could be,” said Ken Grant, director of the National Weather Service.
One of the latest developments is the implementation of flood maps combined with hydrological forecasting, an essential factor since Grant warned that more than 50% of deaths in the last decade were due to floods.
In this sense, Jiang explained that satellite studies from the last 30 years show an increase in the intensity of precipitation associated with hurricanes, the main reason for flash floods.
‘El Niño’ will alter the Pacific
The low activity in the Atlantic contrasts with what is expected for the Pacific due to ‘El Niño’, where NOAA estimates that a greater number of cyclones will be recorded: between 15 and 22 named storms and 9 to 14 hurricanes in its eastern part, and between 5 and 13 tropical cyclones in the central region.
Mexico is usually one of the countries hardest hit by these storms, and this year Hawaii is also in danger of being affected. For the first time, this archipelago will have storm surge warnings and warnings on its main islands, as is the case with the continental territory.
These services will also be available for other US islands such as Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands, according to Jacobs.