The probability of an El Niño episode developing starting in the summer is increasing, according to the latest analyses, although it is still early to determine precisely its possible consequences. This has been reported by the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET).
In a thread published on its official X account, the organization explains that climate models point to a possible transition towards El Niño conditions in the coming monthss, after a current neutral phase of the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) phenomenon.
Meteorology indicates that a progressive warming of the surface waters of the equatorial Pacificl, one of the characteristic signs of this climatic phenomenon of great global influence.
This phenomenon has already demonstrated its destructive capacity in the past. The last precedent for an extreme El Niño occurred in 2015/16, when ocean temperatures reached anomalies of +2.5/+2.6 °C. That episode caused serious consequences, such as torrential rains and flooding in various areas of America and the Pacific, and droughts and heat waves in others, such as Australia, Africa and Southeast Asia
Signs of a possible “Superkid”
The AEMET indicates that the prediction models show a probability close to 60% that an El Niño phenomenon will develop in early summer. Furthermore, there is between a 20% and 25% probability that it is an episode of great intensity facing autumn.
However, the agency warns that these forecasts still present high uncertainty, especially in spring, one of the most complex periods to anticipate the evolution of ENSO. It will be from May onwards when the forecasts will be more reliable.
If confirmed, El Niño may alter temperature and precipitation patterns in different regions of the worldalthough its impact in Europe and Spain is more limited and uncertain.
From the meteorological portal Meteored they point out that, during the next summer, its effect in Spain and in the entire Mediterranean and Europe would in any case be marginal, without the capacity to significantly condition the development of the summer of 2026, since the warm phase of the Pacific would begin too late to directly influence that season.
Still, remember that ECMWF seasonal forecasts indicate that in Spain it is probable a warmer than normal summer, around 1–2°C above average.
Follow-up in the coming months
The AEMET insists that it will be necessary to follow the evolution of the phenomenon in the coming months to confirm its development and evaluate its possible effects more precisely. “The development of an El Niño starting in the summer is probable, but It’s still early to talk about a “Superboy”. It is still difficult to know the consequences it could have on a global scale,” the organization concluded.