The threat posed by an asteroid discovered has recently increased slightly in recent weeks, while telescopes worldwide are hurried to track their trajectory. However, the possibility of an impact remains quite low.
New calculations suggest that there is a 2% probability that space rock 2024 YR4 clash against the Earth in 2032. This also means that there is a 98% chance that I do not do it.
The chances of an impact will undoubtedly fluctuate as there is a better understanding of their trajectory around the sun, and astronomers affirmed that there is a good possibility that the risk probably decreases to zero.
NASA and the Webb Space Telescope of the European Space Agency (that for its initials in English) will observe this asteroid in March before the object disappears from the view. Once that happens, scientists will have to wait until 2028, when approaching again.
What is an asteroid?
Asteroids are space rocks that orbit around the sun and are much smaller than the planets. Scientists believe they are the remains of the formation of the solar system 4.6 billion years ago.
There are as many asteroids – millions of them – that orbit between Mars and Jupiter, that this region is known as the asteroid belt. Sometimes they leave the belt and can end anywhere in space, as happened with this.
How do scientists track potentially dangerous asteroids?
A telescope in Chile discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 last December. It is estimated that it is between 40 and 90 meters wide (130 to 300 feet). Webb telescope observations must provide a more precise measurement, according to NASA.
NASA and the European Space Agency initially calculated that the probabilities of an impact were barely over 1%. For Thursday, probabilities increased to approximately 2%. According to NASA, this is still “extremely low.”
Until scientists have a better understanding of the asteroid trajectory around the sun, they warn that probabilities will continue to fluctuate –And they will possibly fall to zero.
“There is nothing to worry about. It is a curiosity “Said Larry Denneau, software engineer of the asteroid impact alert system at Hawaii who was the first to detect the asteroid. “You don’t have to panic. You have to let the process develop and we will have a safe answer ”.
In 2021, NASA ruled out any risk on another potentially worrying asteroid, Apophis, after new telescopic observations eliminated any possibility of an impact against Earth in 2068.
Should we worry about asteroid 2024 YR4?
It is too early to be distressed by this asteroid, experts say.
“No one should be worried that the probability of impact is increasing. This is the behavior that our team anticipated “Said Paul Chodas, director of the Center for Studies of Objects close to the NASA Earth, in an email. “To be clear, we anticipate that the probability of impact falls to zero at some point”.
Because the size and orbit of the asteroid are uncertain, it is not clear where it could impact and what would be the possible effects if it collided with the earth. If the asteroid is at the lower limit of its size, according to the calculations, that said that any potential impact would be local, similar to the Tunguska event that swept thousands of square kilometers of forest in Siberia in 1908. But it is approaching The 100 meters (330 feet), “the consequences would be significantly worse.”
Chodas said that once the webb determines the size of the asteroid, NASA can predict “how serious an impact of this asteroid and how difficult it could be to divert it.”
NASA has some experience in diverting asteroids. The Dart spacecraft deliberately rammed a harmless asteroid in 2022, in what was the first planetary defense test of this type, altering its orbit around a larger asteroid.