Since last December the Atlas Observatory of Chile detected asteroid 2024 YR4 moving away from Earthhe has been the protagonist of numerous holders for the possibility of impacting our planet the December 22, 2032. Shortly after POT He gave him a probability of a 1% That this happens, a percentage that was increasing during the following weeks as new observations were made. At the moment, the POT It places it in 2.3% -1 possibility of between 43- and the European Space Agency (ESA) in 2%.
It is a very low probability, but not impossible to occur To the UN to activate for the first time the planetary security protocol. SMPAGthe UN Space Missions Planning Group responsible for coordinating the international response to any asteroid with a diameter greater than 50 meters and a probability of impact of at least 1%, has decided Continue monitoring the situation and meet again at the end of April or early May, when 2024 YR4 is already too far to observe it. Meanwhile, NASA has authorized The emergency use of the James Webb space telescope (JWST) To study it. The usual thing is that as more information is achieved, The impact probability decreasesbut we are not there yet.
The first estimates of 2024 YR4 give it a diameter of 55 metersalthough that manages a broader fork of Between 40 and 90 meters. Moves at a speed of almost 48,000 km/h And, although it does not have the ability to cause a mass extinction event, it would be a catastrophe in the case of impacting in populated areas, releasing about 8 energy megatons equivalent to 500 times the Hiroshima atomic bomb.
The probability that YR4 impacts the moon
However, that 2024 YR4 ends in 2032 colliding with the earth or passing by, they are not the only possibilities. I could also impact the moon, although it is a smaller probability, but, again, not impossible.
As explained by the Operations Engineer of Catalina Sky Survey of the University of Arizona David Rankin In bluesky, the asteroid has A 0.3% chance possibility against our satellite.
UPDATED ANIMATION OF 2024 YR4 AS OF FEB 11, 2025. Not Much is Going to Change in the Near Future Without A Precovery. SHOWING JUS OVER ~ 2% IMPACT PROBABILITY ON EARTH AND ~ 0.3% IMPACT PROBABILITY ON THE MOON. Find Orb Nominally You have to pass Between Earth and Moon of ~ 90k km. ðŸ”
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– David Rankin (@asteroiddave.bsky.social) February 11, 2025, 22:19
The Earth effects of an impact of YR4 on the moon
The effects of this collision would be visible from Earthbut it is doubtful that we can affect those who inhabit it. ‘There is the possibility that some material that could hit the earth could be expelled, but I doubt that this represents an important threat,’ he said to New Scientist. Calculate that in a collision against the moon, 2024 YR4 could release More energy than 340 Hiroshima bombs. “It would probably be very visible from Earth,” he says.
Gareth Collinsprofessor of planetary sciences at Imperial College London, has indicated to the environment that ‘We would be quite safe on Earth’since any material expelled as a consequence of the collision probably I would be burned by resenting in the Earth’s atmosphere.
Throughout its history, the moon has been the subject of innumerable asteroid impacts, as demonstrated by its surface full of craters. According to New Scientist, 2024 YR4 could form one of up to 2 kilometers in diameter If you impact the satellite. Very small compared to the most extensive crater on the moon, the basin of the South-Aitken Pole, with 2,400 km in diameter.
Until now, astronomers have observed 2024 YR4 only through terrestrial telescopes, estimating its size from the amount of light it reflects. Instead, the JWST will measure The heat emitted by the asteroid itselfwhich will provide much more precise information about its size and composition.