We have been convinced for years that for this date the global population would be around 8,000 million inhabitants and by 2050 we would touch 10,000 million, but this may not be right. So much that perhaps We would have already reached the dozen of billions. Only we did the calculations badly.
A new study, Posted in Naturesuggests that We have been significantly underestimating the population in rural areas due to the grid method that is usually used for people’s counting. To date, this method was one of the standards in global demography and is based on dividing the world into squares and estimating the population of each square from census data.
But because these estimates are They have calibrated mainly in urban and non -rural environments, inaccuracies have been overlooked in rural areasaccording to a team of scientists from the Aalto University of Finland, led by Josias Láng-Ritter.
According to the Láng-Rritter team, Rural regions represent 43 % of the world’s population. Therefore, if the calculations of this new study are correct, the number of unashed people could amount to billions.
“For the first time, our study provides evidence that a significant proportion of the rural population may not be present in the global population data sets – says Lang -Ritter, in A statement -. We were surprised to discover that the real population that lives in rural areas is much greater than what the global population data indicates; According to the data set, Rural populations have underestimated between 53 % and 84 % during the period studied”
To reach this conclusion, the authors analyzed the population data of the period 1975-2010, analyzing the effects of prey construction works on the displacement of people, a scenario for which there are usually verifiable data on the ground.
When analyzing statistics from 307 dam projects in 35 countriesthe Lang-Ritter team compared the official number of displaced people in these areas with the number of people that are estimated to be there according to five different sets of demographic data.
And this is where they found the failure. The significant disparity between population estimates and the real number of people displaced in an area is ultimately due, to have much less precise data for rural areas.
“The results are notable, since these data sets are have used in thousands of studies and widely to support decision making; However, its precision has not been systematically evaluated, ”adds Lang-Ritter.
Although not everyone agrees with these conclusions. In a Article in New Scientist Several scientists They claim that improvements in satellite images and the quality of data collection in some countries would reduce these discrepancies.
But they maintain that there are discrepancies, therefore, Although the error is not 40%, but it does reach 10% (and we are talking about more than 800 million people, In this case), we could face a serious problem. The regions most affected by this ruling in the calculations, is southeast of Asia, Eastern Europe, the Horn of Africa and the areas of influence of the Amazon basin.
Population estimates are crucial in numerous areas, from the provision of public services to the estimation of climate change impactsand the team responsible for Láng-Rritter wants to be invested more in the monitoring of the population in rural areas to ensure that these people are not excluded.
“To provide rural communities Equitable access to services and other resources, we need a critical debate On the past and future applications of these population maps, ”concludes the study. Affects Láng-Ritter.