Five months after the start of its surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, Ukraine is again on the offensive, despite all of Russia’s attempts to draw its forces away from its own territory.
Thousands of North Korean soldiers have not helped Vladimir Putin eliminate the cause of one of the biggest humiliations for the Russian leader who, instead of capturing Kyiv in three days, failed to protect his own territory from the smaller neighbor.
The Russian region became the most heated part of the front line on Monday after Ukraine launched new attacks in three areas around Sudzha, the main town it controls in the region. According to multiple reports, Ukraine used a significant amount of armored equipment and radio-electronic warfare means to suppress Russian drones.
In response, Russia resorted to extensive use of aviation and launched its own attacks in three areas, but reports from several military bloggers suggest that Ukrainian forces managed to advance in at least one direction, towards Berdin and Veliko Soldatskoye, northeast of Sudzha. .
Ukrainian forces are also suffering casualties, amid the enemy’s superiority in aviation, and it is too early to talk about the outcome of the new offensive, Ukrainian military analysts emphasize.
However, even before this latest operation, Ukraine still controlled some 500 square kilometers of Russian territory. It is now clear that Russia will not succeed in expelling Ukrainian forces from its territory before Donald Trump’s inauguration in Washington on January 20, a goal that Vladimir Putin set for his military, according to Kyiv.
“(Our presence in) Kursk is a very important factor in any negotiations,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed in an interview last week. According to him, Ukraine’s surprise offensive, which began on August 6, 2024, completely changed the narrative that Ukraine was losing the war and was not worth supporting, especially in the countries of the Global South, in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Ukraine has lost between 40 and 50 percent of the territory it had initially conquered in Russia, but its presence in the invading country, more than the exact area it controls, is very important, according to some military analysts.
Russia has so far lost some 38,000 soldiers, killed and wounded, and some 55,000 are fighting there, rather than on the front lines in Ukraine, according to estimates. Some 3,800 North Korean soldiers have also been killed or wounded, used mainly as infantry, with very limited cover by Russian soldiers and few modern weapons, according to Zelensky.
However, some voices in Ukraine are not sure that valuable and limited resources would be best used in Kursk as Russia continues to advance – slowly but faster than several months ago – in the Donetsk region. Russia’s Defense Ministry said Monday that Kurajove, a key target of its relentless attacks, has finally fallen after months of siege and urban warfare.
There were still Ukrainian soldiers in some parts of the city on Monday, Ukrainian sources said, but Kurajove’s fate is sealed, they agree, whether it has fallen already or will fall in the coming days. Ukraine is likely to defend its positions near the city, but Russia may now be closer to its next key objective and begin a decisive battle for the besieged city of Pokrovsk.
Russia depends on its numerical advantage, air superiority and more weapons to advance in Donetsk, but pays a very high price, in terms of its soldiers and equipment to do so. Much will depend on how the incoming US president sees the balance of forces, and that is why what Ukraine and Russia do on the battlefield also pursues political objectives.
Volodymyr Zelensky stated in an interview with the American podcaster Lex Fridman that he is willing to negotiate the end of the war with the Russians only as a final step, after a meeting with Donald Tump and with representatives of the European Union (EU) and having obtained from the latter security guarantees for Ukraine.
«We sat down, first of all, with Trump. We agree with him on how the war can be stopped,” explained the Ukrainian leader.
“Then we can sit down with the Russians,” he told his interlocutor, stressing that a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as a ceasefire, would be impossible “without serious security guarantees” for the invaded country.
Zelensky again demanded entry into NATO – for now without the territories occupied by Russia – as well as the supply of certain weapons by Kyiv’s allies that would not be used if the ceasefire prospers.