In the movies, the potential danger of an asteroid heading for Earth is met with extreme measures ranging from a rocket loaded with nuclear weapons, super-powerful lasers and other typical science fiction gadgets. But the reality is that one of the main obstacles we face has less to do with destroying (the asteroid) than with destroying it. with the coordination of governments in the event of an asteroid impacting the planet and cause damage on a global scale. With this in mind, NASA has created the Planetary Defense Agency, an office that aims to coordinate this scenario on a global scale.
According to NASA, the best way to train all those involved (government agencies, emergency response centers, and space agencies, among others) to do these jobs is to run scenarios and try to determine what actions should be taken. That was precisely the idea behind a theoretical exercise carried out in the Applied Physics Laboratory from Johns Hopkins University. NASA recently published a preliminary report on the results of the exercise, and a fully detailed one will be published in August.
But this is not the first time that this has been done, in fact it is the fifth in a series of exercises that have been carried out over the last eleven years. Each exercise focuses on a different potential impact scenario to determine what actions should be taken immediately or over a longer period.
But this case was different, since the trial involved international collaborators: More than 100 people, including representatives from the UN, the UK, the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Japan Space Agency (JAXA)The most notable absences were those of Russia and China, something that in a real scenario would obviously affect any decision-making.
In this case, the scenario was based on an asteroid hundreds of meters in diameter that had a 72% chance of impacting Earth in about 14 years. The projected path the asteroid would trace across Earth went from the Pacific through northern Mexico and the southern United States, passing directly over Dallas and Washington DC before crossing the Atlantic Ocean, passing through Portugal, Spain (including Madrid) and North Africa.
Calculations showed that there was a 45% chance that the impact would not affect anyone, a probability relatively high that it affected between 1,000 and 100,000 people, and a 0.04% chance that it would affect more than 10 million people. Unsurprisingly, political considerations figured prominently. Many echoed what one anonymous participant noted in the draft report cited above: “I know what I should do, but Congress will tell us to wait.” Uncertainty about the impact, and especially the potential consequences, was a major consideration.
Resource availability also became a primary consideration, both to track the threat closely enough and to design and execute a mission to potentially divert it. Participants did not believe there were sufficient resources for any of the tasks and stated that it was one of their main concerns for the future.
They also agreed that the tabletop exercise was a great success as it allowed decision makers to engage in a real process to determine What to do with a possible asteroid impact to think about what steps they would need to take and what the political and public responses would be. Plans for additional exercises are already being drawn up, and the final report of the session will be published on 5 August, with specific action items.
Yes ok No asteroid impact is expected in the coming decadesthese types of exercises will continue to hone what is arguably one of the most valuable skills of any space agency: how to protect ourselves from one of our greatest threats.