The optimism that the Government has caused to silence its real blockade in Congress, the trial of the attorney general or the progress of the other judicial cases that are underway is faced with this electoral x-ray by NC Report for LA RAZÓN, carried out between November 11 and 14.
If the elections were repeated today, the right (PP and Vox) would reach between 201 and 205 seats, a range that would mark the return of its absolute majority to Congress and the end of the parliamentary engine that sustains the legislature. With a PP that improves in seats and a Vox that continues to grow to its right, in votes and in deputies. It increases by 920,166 ballots compared to 23J, and between 21 and 23 seats. Santiago Abascal’s party would have 54/56 deputies.
In votes, the Popular Party practically maintains its 2023 base (going from 8.16 million to 8.05 million, that is, 111,000
fewer votes), but it would grow between 10 and 12 deputies, reaching 147-149 seats. The progress may seem small, but, regarding the mechanics of the remains and circumscriptions, it is decisive.
Furthermore, this framework of competition on the right is very important in the face of what may happen in the elections in Extremadura, in Castilla y León and Andalusia, which will be held until next summer. With the question still open about what happens in the Valencian Community.
Pedro Sánchez’s fate depends, or so they believe in Moncloa, on Vox being a decisive agent, imposing “radical” ideological conditions to enter governments, and that this serves as ammunition to strengthen himself personally in the face of the general elections.
The electoral contest in these three autonomies is considered a loss by the PSOE, with the resignation of someone who, once again, feels like a martyr of national “sanchism.”
Another important factor in this competition on the right is the one that affects how the negotiation in Valencia is resolved.
In any case, the PSOE is still stuck in an abrasive hole. According to NC Report, Sánchez would lose 1,343,939 votes compared to 2023, falling from 7.82 million to 6.48, which implies falling from 31.7% to 27.2% in popular support. The decline operates on two simultaneous levels: the loyalty of the socialist electorate itself falls – only 71.2% of those who voted for the PSOE in 2023 would repeat today – and abstention skyrockets among those same former voters: 11.5% announce that they would not go to the polls.
The latter is key: socialist weakness lies not only in the transfer to other options, but in the emotional and political disconnection with its base. In deputies, it would be in the 107/109 range, between 12-14 less than on 23J.
The PSOE suffers a double deterioration: the loyalty of its voters falls and abstentionism grows
Sánchez’s fall is correlative to Sumar’s total collapse. Yolanda Díaz’s platform, which aspired to recompose the left to the left of the PSOE, suffers the worst wear and tear among the national forces: only 35.4% of those who voted for her in July 2023 would repeat now.
The rest is fundamentally divided between the PSOE (22.3%), abstention (9.9%) and, above all, Podemos: 27.8% of former Sumar voters today opt for the purple party. What’s more: if we add the raw data, Sumar loses 1.71 million votes since June 23 (falling from 12.3% to 5.6% in estimation), and goes from 31 deputies to only 8 or 9. A real debacle.
And can we? He reappears with enough force to return to Congress with 2 or 3 deputies and 4.1% of the votes. The survey confirms his return as a relevant actor on the left after having been deleted in July.
The hardest ideological bases, which do not buy Sumar’s discursive moderation, are once again finding refuge in a clearer identity. To have your own group in Congress you need to reach 5% of the votes cast at the national level and at least 5 deputies.
Where does Vox’s growth come from? The answer has different keys. Abascal’s party retains 88.1% of those who voted for him in 2023, but it also attracts 12.1% of former PP voters. That is to say: it benefits from both the polarization and the relative weakness of the new groups to the right of the PP. And, above all, it attracts voters disconnected from the system: more than 400,000 former abstentionists now declare their preference for Vox
The right-wing team also closes with the anti-system force: Se Acabó La Fiesta (SALF), which with 1.9% of the votes, attracts almost half a million ballots and represents a warning to the traditional parties. That 1.9% is still insufficient to achieve representation, but its sociological basis is very clear: young, urban, anti-elitist and de-ideologized voterswho reject the bloc policy and whose loyalty is still volatile.
In this context, participation takes on its own political value. According to the survey, if there were elections today, 63.17% of the census would vote, compared to 66.59% in 2023. It is a drop of more than three points, which represents 1.53 million additional people who would stay at home.
Abstention moves unevenly: while among young people aged 18 to 29 it rises to 51.4%, among older people it stagnates at around 30%. The “old” country votes more. AND The PP, which is the leading force in all age groups over 45 years of age, benefits from this structure.
This data confirms that the PP has built generational hegemony in the sections with the greatest propensity to vote. Thus, among those over 65 years of age, the PP obtains 28.1% of the valid vote compared to 18.1% for the PSOE. But among young people, none of the big two exceeds 13%.
The axes that structure the Spain that votes are not the same as those that abstain: and today the conservative profile votes more. Meanwhile, the nationalist bloc resists without incident. ERC gives up one point; Junts remains stable; Bildu and PNV repeat percentage with small oscillations; and the BNG would go from one to two seats.
The practical effect is that the investiture bloc maintains its 2023 support on the periphery, but loses its center of gravity in the PSOE-Sumar core. And that is not enough to achieve power.