Most of our online safety (such as banking, messaging and government secrets) is based on encryption methods such as RSA and ECC (elliptical curve cryptography). These systems are safe because Classic computers would take thousands or even millions of years to decipher them by brute force.
However, a quantum computer that runs the Shor algorithm (one that allows factoring number in record times) I could break these encryptions in hours or even minutes. If this happens, hackers, foreign governments or malicious actors could decipher confidential data (emails, military secrets, financial records), falsify digital signatures and annul in blockchain (such as cryptocurrencies).
While we still have no quantum computers with this power, experts estimate that, Within 10 to 30 years, we could reach “quantum supremacy” in cryptography.
The solution is post -cptography (CPC). To avoid this “apocalypse”, researchers are developing quantum computing algorithms (such as network -based cryptography or hash) that Not even quantum computers can decipher easily. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) of the US is already standardizing these new methods.
Is it really a “apocalypse”? The term is somewhat sensationalist; It is not about robots that take control or end of the world. But, if it is not prepared, a sudden advance in quantum computing could cause massive cybersecurity disasters. The key is in the transition to quantum encryption before the threat materializes.
The question is whether there is a “non -return point” on the stage of a quantum apocalypse. While there is no time like pressing a switch, There are key milestones that could make the threat unstoppable if we do not act on time. If a quantum computer successfully decipher RSA or ECC encryption within a practical period (for example, hours or days), it could be considered a point close to non -return, since once this happens, any encrypted data with vulnerable algorithms could be retroactively deciphered.
Another possible scenario is that of An attack “collect now, decipher later”: Hackers are already collecting encrypted data today and planning to decipher them later, when quantum computers are available. The problem, for us, with this scenario, is that even if we use PQC in 2030, the data stolen between 2025 and 2029 could still be exposed.
Is it preventable? Just migrating to PQC as soon as possible and minimizing the exposure of long -term secrets. The worst scenario would be if quantum computing advances faster than expected (e.g., a sudden algorithmic advance) and we have not created prevention measuresas the general adoption of PQC.
The key is in prevention is to accelerate PQC standards (the NIST is already working on it), Update inherited systems (banks, governments, IoT devices) and assume that the espionage is already being carried out.
By consulting Chatgpt on this topic, his answer is very clear: “The real danger is not only technology, but the gap between the arrival of quantum computing and our preparation. The “Apocalypse” is avoidable, but only if we treat it as a slow hurricane instead of waiting for it to be close. The only safe reaction time is now. ”