Until a few years ago, mentioning the Big One had to do with the earthquake that would trigger the separation of California from the continental United States. But there is a Big One that could be even more extreme.
That’s the conclusion of Michael Osterholm, founding director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota and author of the book The Big One: How We Must Prepare for Future Deadly Pandemics (The Big One: how we should prepare for future deadly pandemics), a work that, despite its title and according to the author, does not seek to scare, but rather awaken the world to an imminent threat for which we are far from being ready.
“The Next pandemic is not a question of if, but when – explains this expert -. And when it arrives it could be ten times more deadly than COVID-19. “Our current preparation is insufficient for what lies ahead.”
COVID-19, which paralyzed the globe and claimed millions of lives, was not the definitive great plague, according to the analysis of experts in biosafety and virology cited in the book: it was only a “dress rehearsal”. The world had a unique opportunity to learn the lesson and strengthen its global health defenses. However, the feeling that the worst is over has led to a dangerous complacency for Osterholm.
Why would “The Big One” be so devastating? The book argues that the perfect storm is made up of factors that are already present. On the one hand, a more lethal and contagious pathogen, one with the transmissibility of measles and the fatality rate of Ebola. The confluence of mass urbanization and global travel would make it an unstoppable wildfire.
To that we must add a collapse of health systems. If COVID-19 saturated the ICUs, “The Big One” could break them completely, leaving not only pandemic patients, but also those suffering from any other illness or accident, without care.
Another factor to take into account is misinformation and pandemic fatigue. The next health crisis would develop in a social terrain already eroded by distrust in institutions and population fatiguemaking the application of effective measures extremely difficult.
Despite this, the central message of “The Big One” is not hopelessness, but the urgency of action. Osterholm emphasizes that we still have time to avoid the worstbut it requires massive and coordinated investment globally.
It is essential to have an epidemiological surveillance system capable of detecting new threats in real time in any corner of the planet. You also have to stimulate research and develop technological platforms to produce vaccines and treatments in a matter of weeks, not years. And, finally, the strengthening of public health systems to be able to face new pandemics, even under pressure.
The conclusion is clear: History will judge this generation not by how it overcame COVID-19, but by whether it had the vision and will to prepare for the much greater disaster to come. The Osterholm Book It can be taken as an apocalyptic scenario or as a warning (extreme, of course) of something that has made the WHO itself put it as a global prevention plan.