The corruption that hits the PSOE also weakens the partners that support Pedro Sánchez. Although The PSC remains up, the price is paid by its allies: ERC goes back and together sinks, leaving the rise of more radical options free. In the Basque Country, the wear of the PNV for its follow -up with the Sanchismo by also wearing the PSE and reinforces EH Bildu which threatens to break the historical distribution of power. The credibility crisis not only erodes to socialism, but fractures to its surroundings and reconfigures alliances that have underpinned it.
The PSC shrinks to ERC; Junts sinks in favor of Orriols
Salvador Illa remains oblivious to the wear and tear that corruption causing in the socialist party nationwide. Neither the cases that directly affect the PSOE, its former ministers or the family of President Pedro Sánchez, nor the “fontanera case” make me a dent. On the contrary, the PSC leader reinforces his position in Catalonia, consolidating himself as the main figure of constitutionalism in a context of growing polarization.
According to an NC Report survey, the PSC would win two seats with respect to the previous elections. Illa capitalizes a moderate, more institutional profile and away from the tension, both national and independence, which allows it to grow in support in an increasingly fragmented community.
The setback of independence is widespread and affects its entire spectrum. ERC would lose two seats, reflecting the wear and tear of the “procés” and the cost of having governed. The PSC capitalizes this fall, absorbing up to 4% of its electorate. For its part, Junts Per Catalunya would fall to four seats, weighed by the personal maneuvers of Carles Puigdemont, his attempt to condition Spanish politics from exile and his role in the instability of the government of Sánchez. The “Performance” of the Expresident escaped in Waterloo, upon arriving in Catalonia, and its subsequent political “escapism” generated discomfort even within independence.
Besides, In Comú and the CUP they would lose a deputy each, reflecting a lower mobilization of the independence electorate, which largely opts for abstention, which continues to rise up to 45.8% (1.1% more than in the past elections).
While the PSC benefits from the recoil of ERC, Aliança Catalan capitalizes the fall of junts from the right flank, with a rise of up to 10%. Sylvia Orriols formation He would achieve up to six seats, channeling a protest vote focused on immigration and defense of Catalan identity, especially among the most discontent independence. In any case, a right turn in Catalonia is confirmed, with the growth not only of Aliança, but also of PP and Vox, which would add a seat each. In total, the block on the right – juncts included – would add 65 seats.
The PNV is still falling and most of the PSE and Otegi becomes possible
The PNV continues in fall. His follow -up of Pedro Sánchez’s policies, the absence of criticism of the Socialists and their attempts to erect now as a left -wing party make their hegemony staggered as a reference for traditional nationalism in the Basque Country. This follows from the latest NC Report survey, where it loses a seat (26) with respect to the past elections.
Meanwhile, gradually gain ground and consolidates as the most voted force in the region, adding one more deputy, reaching 28. This advance of the formation led by Arnaldo Otegi is the result of a patient strategy that seeks to phagocyt radicals For its part, the PSE-EE would also lose a seat, further weakening the traditional block that Basque governments have sustained for decades. The crisis in the socialists is noticed. And is that while 3.4% of the PSE voter would bow down to the PNV, 6.8% would opt for the acronym of the PP. In this scenario, the PNV could continue adding with the PSE, but would lose the absolute majority, being forced to rely on Podemos, which would maintain a seat, or in the abstention of the PP.
In the constitutionalist field, the main beneficiaries would be PP and Vox, who would add a deputy each, capitalizing on the rejection of the electorate for the growing influence of Bildu in the institutions. However, this growth is still insufficient to stop the nationalist majority.
EH Bildu is increasingly strong thanks to the process of “political whitening” promoted by Pedro Sánchez, which has normalized Abertzale formation as a key parliamentary partner in Madrid.
Those of Otegi ambition a majority of lefta possible scenario with the sum of Bildu and the PSE, which would reach the 39 deputies, one more than the absolute majority, thus isolating the PNV and confirming a historical turn in the Basque power. According to the survey, 1.4% of the PNV electorate would migrate to Bildu, while another 6.4% would opt for abstention.