Every day that passes, Pedro Sanchez He is showing that he can still sink the electoral expectations of the PSOE a little further. According to the survey prepared by NC Report for LA RAZÓN, the socialists would obtain 24.9% of the votes today and between 98 and 100 deputies. This result not only assumes that the party could fall below the psychological barrier of one hundred seats, but it is also the lowest voting intention obtained by the PSOE in the entire legislature.
To put the figure in perspective, it means that the PSOE would now be 6.8 percentage points below its result on June 23, 2023 (31.7%) and would be losing between 21 and 23 seats compared to then, all the result of having left no less than two million votes behind.
The NC Report survey published today is the first carried out after the summer break and fully reflects the effects of the migration crisis that is being experienced in Ceuta. Before the summer, the Government went on vacation surrounded by numerous judicial scandals, both in the party and in the president’s entourage, and in Moncloa they hoped that the summer period would serve to reorganize the agenda. However, what happened in Ceuta and the management of the Executive, which is being harshly criticized by both the opposition and its parliamentary partners, has been the last straw for Sánchez.
The electoral beneficiaries of this socialist debacle are the PP and Vox. The party of Alberto Núñez Feijóo Today it would reach 34.4% of the votes and between 147 and 149 deputies. Although it is only 1.3 points above its result of 23J, mainly due to the increase in Santiago Abascalthe popular ones are now 9.5 points behind the PSOE and around 50 deputies higher.
But the one that takes the most advantage of the situation is Vox, which already reaches 18.3% of the votes and between 62 and 64 seats. This is the highest voting intention that Vox has obtained in the entire legislature and it looks set to double the number of deputies it obtained in 2023 and obtain its best historical result.
Together, PP and Vox would be obtaining the support of more than half of the voters, 52.7%. This not only means that they would be given the numbers to achieve Feijóo’s investiture, which is already taken for granted, but that they can also add three-fifths of Congress (210), since the sum of their deputies offers a range of between 209 and 213 seats.
With a representation of this magnitude, PP and Vox would have a qualified majority that would allow them to undertake, together with a similar majority in the Senate, a reform of the Constitution (as long as it does not affect the basic pillars), or the renewal of bodies such as the Constitutional Court, the General Council of the Judiciary (CGPJ) or the board of directors of RTVE. The PSOE could be completely left out in a distribution that has traditionally always been done in bipartisan collaboration.
As for the rest of the left-wing parties, Sumar is not being able to reflect the discomfort that exists towards the PSOE. The other party in the coalition government also emerges worn out from this last month and would fall to 5.7% of the votes, leaving almost half behind compared to 2023 and placing itself between 7 and 9 deputies. What is currently the fourth party in the Hemicycle (with 31, only two less than Vox), would be reduced to the size of a parliamentary group like Junts or ERC. Podemos would be left with 3.4% of the votes and between two and three deputies, compared to the four representatives it has now.
This hard blow to the left is mainly explained by three factors. The most notable is that it has an absolutely demobilized electorate, people who voted for these parties in the past and who now see no reason to do so again. Only two thirds (66.9%) of those who voted for the PSOE in 2023 would now return to vote for Sánchez. 10.9% of those who did so would choose to abstain in a current general election. In the case of Sumar it is more devastating: only 35.9% would vote for them again, just over a third, while 21.9% would abstain.
The other factor that explains this debacle is that there is also a certain flight of the PSOE vote to other formations. 11% of those who chose the socialist ticket in 2023 would now go to the PP and 6.6% would go to Vox. This would show that there are people in some areas, for example rural areas, in which Santiago Abascal’s party is managing to attract formerly socialist votes because Sánchez has not been able to respond to their daily problems.
It is true that there is also a useful concentration of votes on the left around the PSOE, as demonstrated by the fact that 14.7% of those who voted for Sumar would now vote for SánchezHowever, it passes in much smaller quantities and does not serve to cushion the fall. This electorate could be recovered with elements that achieve mobilization (as already happened in 2023, in fact), but the truth is that the current Executive does not seem to be able to control the political agenda and it seems very difficult for it to be able to turn the tables.