The Moncloa machinery has started the new political season with the activation of the campaign to promote the idea that, however much some insist on pointing out that the political project of the President of the Government is finished, in reality there is Pedro Sánchez for the entire legislature. Yesterday this was one of the central ideas of the inaugural speech of the president’s return to work, despite the fact that experts in political communication agree that the more one insists on denying a weakness, the more one makes people focus on it. That of highlighting the emperor’s beautiful clothes, when the emperor is naked. This is not the criterion of the courtly advisors of Moncloa, who are determined to follow the opposite path and to insist, every time they have the opportunity, that there are another three years of legislature ahead.
But these first moves by Moncloa after the summer are not proving very convincing within the party, where they believe that what is coming to them is another of these “moves” by Sánchez, the result of his weakness, and which in some cases have worked out well for him, as happened with the call for general elections after the socialist defeat in the regional and municipal elections.
Now, beneath the official discourse, what is intuited on the horizon from within the party is the possible calling of general elections before next summer, “between spring and summer.”
The call for the PSOE congress is placed within this framework by which the socialist general secretary tries to protect himself in case the worst scenario ends up being fulfilled, that is, that of a devastating parliamentary solitude despite the fact that Moncloa tries to stretch the deadlines and deny the importance of legislative action. And not only because of the withdrawal of Junts, but because of its growing differences with Sumar, the “no” of Podemos, and the possible disengagement of ERC, depending on how the issue of the singular negotiation for Catalonia evolves.
The PSOE is acting blindly, as is the case with the Council of Ministers and even the presidential cabinet, with a few exceptions. It is a style of exercising power that is increasingly “absolute”, due to the solitude in its exercise, and the importance of authority blows, such as the most recent one of the appointment of Minister José Luis Escrivá as the new governor of the Bank of Spain.
“He is rearranging the pieces and turning the congress at the end of November into a Super Tuesday congress (in reference to the key day in the US to decide who will compete for the Presidency of the country),” commented the Andalusian federation.
Moncloa’s solution to cover the hole left by the last negotiation with ERC is to reorient the political debate with the message that there is no privileged financing for Catalonia, but rather more resources for all communities, and that the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, “is torpedoing it because of his eagerness to reach Moncloa.”
The risk of this manoeuvre is anticipated by ERC. “Singular is that it is only for Catalonia. Anything that involves generalising the singularities will leave us with no room to continue supporting the Government.” And the response from Sánchez’s entourage to these warnings is also forceful: they are convinced that ERC’s weakness leaves them no other option than to continue playing the ball wherever Sánchez takes it. And the same is thought, although for different reasons, of the PNV. Translating this into the debate on financing means, according to the analysis they make in Moncloa, that they can continue “pressuring” the Republicans because in the end they will bow their heads, and “whatever is given to them will be enough”, despite Junts increasing the pressure on them.
The idea of protection in case the worst-case scenario comes true, in the event of an election call, is linked to the readjustment of “allies” that the president has made to fill the gap left by Escrivá in the Council of Ministers.
With so many pieces dancing on the political chessboard, the PP has the challenge of not failing in the moves it makes: the debate on the reform of regional financing may end up entangling them even if they come out with an advantageous starting position. And there are regional leaders who have already been warning about this: to the extent that the fight with Sánchez is based more on staging than on concrete realities, and the President of the Government is handling this terrain with skill.
The Popular Party is holding its regional summit this Friday to ratify its commitment to equality and reject privileges for Catalonia. With internal differences camouflaged in the common front and which derive from the different interests that the barons have. For example, the official “no” to the forgiveness of regional debt, because it is rewarding poor management, must be explained to the president of the Valencian Community, who would benefit from this decision, and who will be measured at the polls by the state of health of his public services and infrastructure.