The polls have almost never gone well for Sánchez. If we do a quick balance, we will see that in 2015 it obtained 90 deputies, in 2016, 85 seats and the worst record of the Socialist Party since 1977.
In reality, it has only won the legislative elections in 2019, with 123 deputies in those that were held in April and 120 seats in those that were repeated in November.
He has never won again in his career, in 2023 he was defeated again, although the socialist leadership repeatedly repeated that slogan of “we are more”, the reality is that the PSOE obtained 16 fewer deputies than the Popular Party.
That is, since Sánchez has led the Socialist Party, since 2019 he has permanently lost votes and almost all regional and municipal power.
The electoral polls published in recent days indicate that the loss of the socialist vote continues slowly but progressively and the expectations of the political right improve.
There are exceptions such as the CIS study and that of Iván Redondo that point to a socialist recovery, but even the latter, which is tailor-made, predicts a collapse of Feijóo in favor of Vox, although it does give the right-wing bloc more than 180 deputies.
Obviously, these polls are not innocent, they have the objective of mobilizing socialist voters with the fear that Vox has a chance to enter a government. Vox does well with socialist radicalization and the PSOE does well when its voters perceive that the extreme right is growing because it gains voter loyalty.
But there is something that all the studies have in common, which gives the PP and Vox together a comfortable absolute majority. Most of them reflect socialist attrition and a flight of votes from the PP to Vox, but they place Feijóo with more than 145 deputies.
The conclusion is evident, we are facing a change in the political cycle. What is expected is that Sánchez will put into motion all his strategic machinery consisting of further stressing the polarization to keep his voter loyal.
There will be bait for Abascal in the form of proposals apparently out of context, but with a high ideological load. Many will think that it is about bothering the PP but, in reality, it is about benefiting Vox, which will take advantage of it to rearm its political space. The polls mark a change, but Sánchez will defend himself with what he can.