The summer of 2024 was the hottest ever recorded in the Landmaking it even more likely that this year will end up being the warmest ever recorded by humanity, the European climate service Copernicus reported on Friday.
And if that sounds familiar, it’s because the planet’s record-breaking events were set last year as human-caused climate change, boosted momentarily by El Niño, continues to increase temperatures and extreme weather, scientists said.
The northern meteorological summer — June, July and August — averaged 16.8 degrees Celsius (62.24 degrees Fahrenheit), according to Copernicus. That’s 0.03 degrees Celsius (0.05 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the old record of 2023. Copernicus records go back to 1940, but American, British and Japanese records beginning in the mid-19th century show the past decade has been the warmest since regular measurements began and probably in about 120,000 years, some scientists say.
Augusts in 2024 and 2023 tied for the hottest on record, at 16.82C (62.27F). It was the first time in more than a year that the world did not set a record for July, which fell just behind 2023, but because June 2024 was much warmer than June 2023, this summer as a whole was the hottest on record, Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo said.
Stefan Rahmstorf, a climatologist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research who was not involved in the research, said: “What these sobering figures indicate is that the climate crisis is gripping us ever tighter.”
And it’s a sweaty grip because, with temperatures soaring, the dew point — one of several ways to measure air humidity — likely hit or near a record high this summer across much of the world, Buontempo said.
Until last month, Buontempo, like other climatologists, was undecided about whether 2024 would break the record for warmest year set last year, especially since August 2023 was soaringly warmer than average. But this August 2024 matched August 2023, making Buontempo “fairly confident” that this year will end up being the warmest on record.
“For 2024 to not become the hottest year on record, there needs to be a very significant cooling of the landscape in the remaining months, which does not seem likely at this stage,” Buontempo said.
With La Niña — a temporary natural cooling of parts of the central Pacific — expected, the final four months of the year may not be as record-breaking as most of the past year and a half. But the cold is unlikely to be enough to prevent the annual record from being broken in 2024, Buontempo said.
These are not just numbers in a record book, but a climatic phenomenon that affects people, according to experts.
“All of this translates into more misery around the world, as places like Phoenix begin to feel like a barbecue grilling on high for longer and longer stretches of the year,” said University of Michigan environment dean and climatologist Jonathan Overpeck. The Arizona city has had more than 100 days of 100-degree weather this year. “With longer and more severe heat waves come more severe droughts in some places, and more intense rainfall and flooding in others. Climate change is becoming too obvious — and too costly — to ignore.”
Jennifer Francis, a climatologist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Cape Cod, said there has been an onslaught of extreme weather events featuring heat, flooding, wildfires and high winds that are violent and dangerous.
“Like people living in a war zone with the constant sound of bombs and the roar of guns, we are becoming deaf to what should be alarm bells and air raid sirens,” Francis said in an email.
While some of last year’s record warmth was due to El Niño — a temporary natural warming of parts of the central Pacific that alters climate around the world — that effect has faded, showing that the main driver is long-term, human-caused climate change from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas, Buontempo said.
“It’s not surprising that we’re seeing this, this heat wave, that we’re seeing these extreme temperatures,” Buontempo said. “We’re certainly going to see more.”