Global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.3% in 2024 compared to the previous year, according to new data from the UNwhich once again called for greater efforts from the most polluting countries.
Scientists agree that exceeding a 1.5°C rise above pre-industrial levels will have catastrophic consequences and that everything must be done to avoid it.
According to a report by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), the world will exceed this threshold in the coming years, in line with the emissions record of 2024.
The data comes a few days before the COP30 climate summit, which will be held in the Brazilian city of Belém between November 10 and 21.
Since exceeding the 1.5°C threshold is considered inevitable, attention is focused on how to limit temperatures to less risky levels.
“Our mission is simple, but not easy: to make any improvement as small and brief as possible,” UN Secretary General António Guterres declared on Tuesday during the presentation of the report.
That is why the UN urges the most polluting countries, mainly responsible for the crisis, to commit to faster and more important reductions, so that the increase curve once again approaches 1.5 °C by the end of this century.
“Ambition and action are far below the levels needed on a global or collective scale,” Anne Olhoff, chief scientific editor of the report, told AFP.
The study points out that, even if the objectives that have already been approved at the global level were fully implemented, warming would be between 2.3 °C and 2.5 °C between now and 2100.
Extreme phenomena
The consequences would be disastrous for the countries most exposed to the increase in sea level and to extreme weather events.
Scientists have strong evidence that warming above 1.5°C increases the intensity of hurricanes, floods and other natural disasters.
At 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, the Land It is already too hot for most tropical coral reefs to survive. In addition, the ice sheets and the Amazon rainforest could undergo serious and long-lasting changes, with consequences for the entire planet.
According to the Paris Agreementeach round of climate commitments must be more ambitious than the last to keep long-term warming “well below” 2°C and as close to 1.5°C as possible.
Despite being obliged to do so, only a third of countries announced a 2035 emissions reduction target by September 30, UNEP said.
This year’s warming projections are 0.3°C, a figure lower than last year, but Olhoff points out that only a small part of that reduction is explained by the new commitments.
The 2024 record, with global emissions up 2.3% from the previous year, was driven by Indiafollowed by China, Russia and Indonesia.
This is a fairly high increase compared to recent years “and similar to the growth in emissions recorded in the 2000s,” according to the report.
The wealthy G20 economies accounted for three-quarters of global emissions. Among the six biggest polluters, the countries of the European Union They were the only ones to reduce greenhouse gases in 2024.