Less than 24 hours after raising the probability of impact with the Land of the asteroid 2024 YR4 to 3.1 %, the POT He has updated the calculations and reduced it to 1.5 %the American space agency reported in a statement.
NASA’s note explains that after a week of visibility limited by the full moon, The skies are now darker and that has allowed astronomers to resume the observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 and reduce the probability of impact by half.
The Center for Studies of Objects close to NASA Earth (CNEOS) has modified calculations in just 24 hours.
Thus, on February 18, the CNEs raised the impact probability of the asteroid at 3.1 %, the highest ever recorded by NASA for an object of this size or greater, but the data collected during the night reduced the probability of impact to the impact 1.5%.
2024 YR4 has a diameter between 40 and 90 meters, and on the Turin scale (maximum 10) – which measures the risk of an asteroid – remains in 3, that is, it deserves attention from astronomers.
Planetary Defense
“Every additional night of observations improves our understanding where the asteroid could be on December 22, 2032 and underlines the importance of collecting enough data So that our planetary defense experts can determine the future risk for the Earth, ”explains NASA’s note.
The agency hopes that the probability of impact will continue to evolve as new observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 be made in “the next few days and weeks,” he says.
The latest observations have further limited uncertainty about the asteroid trajectory and, as they continue to observe the asteroid movement over time, “The region of possible locations will be further reduced”Add the note.
However, so that the probability of impact is reduced to zero, the earth would have to be outside the range of possible locations of the 2024 YR4 asteroid on December 22, 2032.
In addition, there is also a probability – a minor – that this asteroid impacts the moon. NASA’s current calculations estimate this impact probability at 0.8 %.
Surveillance Network
For its size and with a probability of impact greater than 1% at a given time within the next 50 years, 2024 YR4 meets the criteria that have made two reaction groups be activated by the UN: the International Asteroid Alert Network (IAWN) and the Space Missions Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG).
IAWN experts meet every week to track, while the SMPAG plans to meet again in May, with all the data collected, when the asteroid can no longer be seen from the earth.
When it is outside the reach of terrestrial telescopes, the person in charge of measuring their route will be the James Webb Space Telescope.
The asteroid will have a close step to our planet again in December 2028, although it can be observed from spring that same year. That would be the occasion for, if it has not been done before, establishing the trajectory of the rock.