Thanks to the use of telescopes on our planet and others such as Hubble or James Webb, more and more information about One of the most appointed asteroids in history: the YR4. The impact possibilities on our planet, according to NASA, are above 2%. The same as the European Space Agency.
In this way, the monitoring of his career It allows not only to encrypt the impact risk, but also its characteristics as exact mass and compositionto. For example, we already know what would happen if it collides with the moon.
Now, when it comes to a possible impact with our planet in December 2032, estimates are more complex. Asteroid YR4 has a size between 40 and 100 meters wide and would be a rocky body. The problem is that this range of size and that part of its composition is unknownA, affects its speed, its mass and, in the long term, its orbit, therefore, determining exactly its trajectory is very complex.
Regarding the destructive potential of 2024 YR4, it also depends on all these variables, although NASA experts speak of an impact equivalent to almost 8 million tons of TNT, or 500 times the power of the atomic bomb launched on Hiroshima. This explosion would affect approximately a radius of 50 kilometers around the place of impact. Far from what is considered a planet destroyer.
For the place of the collision, some experts, such as David Rankin, engineer of the Catalina Sky Survey project of the NASA, have He outlined a possible trajectory that would tell us where YR4 is more likely.
2024 YR4 IMPACT UNCERENTY UPDATE. This is using Data Through 2/6/25. Uncertainty has shrunk a bit, increasing odds to ~ 2%. The Center Has Shifted Back Towards The Earth. Unfortunately, It Coul Be a Long While Before We Rule It Out Completely. Animation Starts on 12/18/32. ðŸ”🧪
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– David Rankin (@asteroiddave.bsky.social) February 6, 2025, 21:58
Taking into account the information (scarce) we have, The most affected regions would be a strip of territory that extends from northern South America, through the Pacific Ocean, to southern Asia, the Arabian Sea and Africa. Yes, the area is not very precise, since it includes countries such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, but there is also talk of Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador.
Is this logical? Yes, taking into account the variables that exist and others that we still do not know, These would be the sites that, currently, are most likely … within the 2.3% mentioned. The first thing that experts should determine to be able to have greater precision, is their size and composition. This will give us many more clues and facilitate refining the trajectory for 2032.