It is widely accepted, although not openly stated, that Israel has nuclear weapons and that Iran has enriched enough nuclear material to build them. With this in mind and given the escalation of violence between both countries, a team of experts, led by Cham Dallas, from the Institute for Disaster Management, analyzed the medical consequences of a nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel in the near future, with special attention to the distribution of victims in urban environments.
Throughout 30 pages, the Dallas team made different model estimates of nuclear war casualties using models to evaluate radiation from the explosion and using data from the Defense Nuclear Agency. Fallout radiation was calculated with the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s (DTRA) Hazard Assessment and Prediction Capability (HPAC) V404SP4, as well as database software applications. The prognosis for burn victims and affected populations was also calculated for areas affected by thermal, blast, and radiation data.
The results estimated casualties from trauma, thermal burns, and radiation in three Israeli and eighteen Iranian cities on a geographic basis. The nuclear weapons detonations in the densely populated cities of Iran and Israel will result in unprecedented millions of deaths, millions of injuries suffering without adequate medical care, a broad base of persistent mental health problems, a devastating loss of municipal infrastructure, a long-term disruption of economic activity , educational and other essential social activities, and a breakdown of law and order.
In total, a number greater than 30 million is expected, with Tehran as the most affected city, with almost 7,300,000 deaths, more than 90% of the population.
The Dallas team maintains that a nuclear conflict will result in a very limited medical response for survivors. “The consequences for the management of the health of patients with thermal and radiation burns are the worstas burn patients require enormous resources to treat and there will be little or no familiarity with the treatment of radiation victims. “Any rational analysis of a nuclear war between Iran and Israel reveals absolutely unacceptable results for both nations,” the study concludes.