It is neither a majority nor is it progressive. The Government continues to feel the wear and tear inflicted on it by its parliamentary partners. Two defeats in two weeks and by two of its supposed allies: PNV and Junts. However, the terms are not comparable. The PNV’s was a one-off issue due to its historical relationship with Venezuela – and this is how they understand it in Moncloa – while Junts’ is already threatening to become a constant. In the coalition there is deep unease about the way in which the negative vote of Carles Puigdemont’s party to the consideration of the Sumar bill to regulate seasonal and room rentals was handled. They consider that “they have taken a risk” because they communicated the change from abstention to rejection just three minutes before the vote, with no room to negotiate. In the coalition they relate it to a direct warning to Pedro Sánchez, because Sumar received the refusal from Junts once the President of the Government was already in Congress.
“It is what it is,” a socialist leader sums up laconically. In Moncloa, resignation is also rife and they are already anticipating a “hot autumn” in relations with the post-convergents, until they resolve the political direction and leadership of the formation for the next four years at their organic congress. “We don’t know what to expect until then,” admit socialist sources, who anticipate “more scares” and do not dare to venture that, once the Junts congress is over, the situation will improve. “They have to rearm, but you don’t know in what sense either.” The feeling of “disorientation” is total and despite the fact that in public they avoid disqualifying their partners, in private they recognise that “they are not to be trusted.” In the Government they believe that the “incendiary speech” of the independentists is due to the fact that they still “have to digest” the fact that Salvador Illa is president of the Generalitat.
In Moncloa, the movement is framed in the context that the party is experiencing, which seeks to demonstrate in Congress the influence that it has lost in Catalonia. In fact, the background of the message that Sánchez continually conveys that “there is a legislature for a while” is that he is willing to resist despite the difficulties posed by Waterloo. However, they believe that Junts will not go so far as to let the Government fall. “They are not interested. What incentives do they have? They will never have the influence they have now,” they reflect in the socialist part of the Government.
However, there are leaders who wonder how long this situation is sustainable, because “governing is not resisting” and Sánchez “cannot remain in power at any price.” In any case, in Moncloa they are willing to continue forward whatever the cost and believe that this type of positioning by Junts, voting with PP and Vox, may end up wearing down their position in Catalonia, where, say the socialists, “the debate is different.” “This penalizes them.”
Carles Puigdemont’s response was not long in coming. “Ideological blackmail does not work with Junts,” he warned in a long message on X –formerly Twitter– in which he reminded Sánchez that he does not have a majority in Congress and that “not sweating the jersey trying to win every vote is the most direct path to failure. Our votes cannot be taken for granted,” he said.
The Government does not believe that it is viable for Junts to continue voting with the PP and Vox for much longer. Just yesterday, the ERC spokesperson, Gabriel Rufián, warned Sánchez that a new bloc was being formed, referring to the PP, Vox and Junts pincer movement. In Moncloa they rule out the possibility of joining their votes to push through a motion of censure against Sánchez. “It would be political suicide,” explains a source in the Government. They believe that, despite the constant feeling of instability, “dialogue will prevail” and if not, it will be Junts who will go “adrift,” not the Executive.
In the minority wing of the Government, the feeling of pessimism is even greater. It was Sumar who received the “blow” on Tuesday when they saw how Junts shot down their initiative and they believe that Puigdemont’s people are looking every few weeks to “deliver a blow” to remind the Government that they have “the upper hand.” That is, to make it clear that without their seven votes, the legislative agenda of Moncloa is frozen. However, Sumar does not consider that Junts can “gain” anything with this enterprise of opposing a left-wing government. The second vice-president Yolanda Díaz herself yesterday called on Puigdemont to “decide” whether to take “the path of construction or of blockage.”
In Sumar they admit that now the arithmetic is “even more complicated” and they are preparing to “work three times as hard” to unite the numbers needed to win votes. Beyond the content, that is, to overturn the improvement of the Housing Law, in the plurinational group they censure the “forms” used by Junts. “There are things that cannot be done like this, just for parliamentary decorum,” they lament, in relation to giving notice with a call, without the possibility of a new meeting to give opportunity for dialogue. They also venture that this will influence from now on the parliamentary relationship, that is, the daily work in Congress.