A Financial Times investigation published this Thursday has revealed that Russia has improved the performance of ballistic missiles 9K720 Iskander M and Kh-47M2 Kinzhal in its terminal flight phase. This has allowed him reduce interception rate of the anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense system Patriot around the capital, kyiv. As Ukrainian and Western officials have assured the media, the destruction rate of incoming missiles has fallen from 37% in August to 6% in September.
The reason for this decrease in effectiveness is that, after maintaining a conventional medium trajectory profile, in the terminal phase the Russian missiles execute abrupt dives and lateral movements intended to break radar tracking and desynchronize firing solutions.
The Patriot remains the only system deployed by Ukraine with ballistic missile defense capability. He AN/MPQ-65 series fire control radar that uses the Patriot system generates high quality traces and sends interception orders to the hit-to-kill family of missiles (they need to hit the target directly) PAC-3whose effectiveness depends on precise terminal guidance and a perfect geometric coincidence in space and time between the interceptor and the target, under extreme speed conditions and in fractions of a second.
The variant PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement It incorporates a double impulse motor and an active seeker at the tip of the missile, which gives it more range and maneuverability to intercept targets. These advantages work best when the radar keeps the track stable until the end; If the target suddenly changes its trajectory or is launched in an almost vertical fall, interception is complicated.
He Iskander 9M723 It behaves unconventionally: it flies lower than a normal ballistic trajectory and can change height and direction in the final phase, making it difficult for radars to maintain stable tracking. He Kinzhalwhich is launched from airplanes like the MiG-31K or the Tu-22M3reaches much higher speeds in the dive and uses similar maneuvers.
Against the new Russian guidance software
What has changed since late summer on these missiles is the guidance software– Now adjust the timing and angle of the maneuvers to appear just within the Patriot’s field of vision when the interceptor missiles have already been launched and cannot sufficiently correct their trajectorythus making defense difficult.
For Ukrainian operators the situation is more complicated. Batteries must follow ballistic trajectories while also covering low-flying cruise missiles and kamikaze drones in the same waves. If a ballistic missile begins to ‘snake’ or dive in the final seconds, They have less time to decide, consume more interceptors per attack and increase the probability of failure if the maneuver exceeds the capability of the interceptor’s search engine. That’s why the commanders are moving launchers to protect electrical networks and industrial infrastructureskeeping more missiles ready, improving sensor fusion and betting on a layered defense that detects and stops threats before they reach the terminal phase.
The solution, according to officials and experts, is accelerate defensive adaptation. Updating radar and interceptor software, revising sighting angle tables, and changing tactics to distribute launchers and coordinate more sensors can regain lost kill probability.
Incorporate systems of medium range to interrupt enemy maneuvers before the final phase helps save PAC-3 missiles and the multisite ‘priming’ -when several radars or sensors, deployed in different locations, collaborate to follow the same target and pass the information in real time to the Patriot battery- reduces the probability that a single terminal maneuver will cause the track to be lost.