The forest fires driven by climate change they have contributed to provoke thousands of deaths every year and billions of dollars in economic costs in the United States due to smoke, according to a new study.
In the document, published on Friday at the Nature Magazine And entitled “Communications Earth & Environment”, it is indicated that, from 2006 to 2020, climate change contributed to provoking about 15,000 deaths from exposure to small particles derived from forest fires and cost around 160,000 million. The annual interval of deaths was 130 to 5,100, according to the studybeing the highest in states such as Oregon and California.
“We see many more of these smoke events derived from forest fires,” said Nicholas Nassikas, author of the study, doctor and professor of Medicine at the Harvard School of Medicine. Therefore, he and a multidisciplinary team of researchers wanted to know “what it really means in a changing environment for factors such as mortality, which is the worst possible result for health.”
Lisa Thompson, a professor at the University of Emory who studies air pollution and climate change and did not participate in research, commented that it is one of the first studies that has seen where the effect of climate change in mortality is isolated. Observing the impacts over time and space also makes the study uniquehe said.
The researchers focused on deaths linked to exposure to fine particles, or PM2.5, the main concern related to the smoke of forest fires.
These particles can be deeply lodged in the lungs and provoke cough and irritated eyes with short -term exposure. But in the long term they can worsen existing health problems and cause a series of chronic and mortal conditions. Children, pregnant people, the elderly and outdoor workers are some of the most vulnerable people. The Institute for Health Effects estimated that the pollutant caused four million deaths worldwide.
1/15 | Forest fires in Los Angeles have become one of the most expensive disasters in the history of the United States. The forest fires that exploded on January 7, 2025 in the Los Angeles County continue to be burned, but they are already expected to be among the most expensive natural disasters in the history of the United States. – Ethan Swope
Tests have emerged that the PM2.5 particles of the smoke of forest fires are more toxic than other sources of pollution. When these fires approach cities, burning cars and other materials that contain toxic, the danger increases.
Numerous studies have linked the climate change caused by the human being – provided by the burning of coal, oil and gas – with an increase in fires in North America. Global warming increases drought, especially in the west, as well as other extreme meteorological phenomena. The driest conditions extract moisture from plants, which act as fuel for fires. When dry vegetation and stations are mixed with higher temperatures, that increases the frequency, extension and severity of forest fires and the smoke they emit.
Discouraging findings, but not surprising
Jacob Bendix, Professor Emeritus of Geography and Environment at the University of Syracuse, said he felt “discouraged”, but not surprised, by the findings.
“These figures are really important. I think that people who are outside the areas that are really burning tend to see the increase in fires as a distant inconvenience … This study emphasizes how broad are the impacts”Blessed said in an email. The academic did not participate in the study.
The authors of the study were based on modeled and existing data to reach their conclusions. First, they sought to understand the magnitude of the area burned by forest fires attributable to climate change. They did that analyzing the real climatic conditions – Calor and rain, for example – when forest fires exploded, from 2006 to 2020, and compared the data with a scenario where weather measurements would be different without climate change.
1 /11 | Impressive images of forest fires in Texas. A forest fire that sweeps the so -called Texas Panhandle became the second largest incident in the history of the state. – The Associated Press
From there, they calculated the levels of PM2.5 of the smoke of forest fires linked to climate change using the same approach. Finally, integrating current understanding, based on published research, how particles affect mortality, quantified the number of deaths related to PM2.5 of forest fires and calculated their economic impact.
This framework showed that from 164,000 deaths related to exposure to PM2.5 particles derived from forest fires that occurred from 2006 to 202010% were attributable to climate change. Mortalities were 30% to 50% higher in some states and counties from the west of the United States.
Questions about the conclusions of the study
Marshall Burke, professor of global environmental policy at Stanford University, said the evidence that links climate change with the burned areas were “solid”, but the subsequent steps were more difficult.
“Linking the area burned with smoke is more complicated because you never know exactly where the wind is going to blow,” he said, and wondered how death calculations were compared to deaths linked to air pollution in general.
Even so, his approach was sensible and reasonable, Burke said.
1 /16 | This was the forest fire that affected about 100 strings of land in the Parguera. A forest fire broke out on Monday afternoon on Highway 304, near the La Parguera neighborhood, in Lajas. – Supplied
Patrick Brown, a professor of Climate and Energy Policy at Johns Hopkins University, said he had some concerns about the study. A conceptual era. The study recognizes the power that non -climatic factors have on forest fires, but does not give them the right weight, he said in an email.
Brown, who did not participate in the study, fears that those responsible for decision -making may erroneously conclude that mitigating carbon emissions that heat the planet is the only solution. “However, in many regions, the most immediate action to save lives can be the creation of firewalls, controlled burning, regulation of sources of ignition, public health campaigns, etc.,” he said.
Land management practices such as controlled burns can reduce forest fire fuelsaid Nassikas. But, ultimately, the study indicates that the problem of smoke from forest fires will only worsen if there is no reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
“Part of the study is to raise awareness,” he said. “And then, once we understand that … What are the interventions that we can implement at a personal level, at a community level and, obviously, at a broader level throughout the country and worldwide?”