After meeting last March 31 53 years orbiting the earththe Soviet probe designated as Kosmos 482 It is about to resent the atmosphere. But this might not be a reentry more like that of other satellites that end their useful life and end up exorbiting and disintegrating in the process. The Soviet spacecraft, A landing module designed to do so in Venus and resist the extreme conditions of its atmosphere, could survive the re-entry In the Earth’s atmosphere and reach the surface.
Marco Langbroekexpert in monitoring of satellites from the Netherlands that has studied the remains of Kosmos 482 for years, affirms that the re -entry of the module could occur During the second week of May. ‘As was built to withstand the hard atmosphere of Venus, There is a real possibility of surviving the intact reentry‘, explains Langbroek in a recent blog post. Although the risk for the population is low, he warned, It is not null.
The mission was launched on March 31, 1972 with the aim of sending a landing module to Venus. In Soviet releases, it was usual to place the mission in a parking orbit. That is, an orbit in which the launch vehicle remains temporarily Before igniting the engines to enter the desired final trajectory.
However, the ship failed to escape the earth orbit due to a poorly configured timer which caused it to disconnect prematurely from the upper stage Blok l of the rocket Molniyawhich caused him not to abandon the terrestrial orbit in which he has remained more than half a century. Since 1962, Kosmos is the name that the Soviet Union gave to its ships orbiting the earth, that was its purpose or not. This mission, that the Soviet Union did not recognize at the time, happened to have the name of Kosmos 482.
After launch, The ship separated into 4 parts. Two, small, re -entered the atmosphere and fell on Ashburton, New Zealand, only two days later. The descent module, of about 495 kilograms, and the separate motor unit have remained in orbit since then. It is the first, whose original name is 3v number 671, which is about to re -enter the atmosphere.
Could Kosmos 482 survive his reentry in the atmosphere?
‘The risks involved are not particularly high, but they are not zero. With a mass of just under 500 kg and a size of 1 meter, They are similar to those of the impact of a meteorite‘, said Langbroek.
Kosmos 482 was designed to support the extreme atmosphere of Venus. Therefore, it has reinforced thermal protection, is capable of supporting 300 g of acceleration and 100 pressure atmospheres. This has aroused doubts about whether or not it will be destroyed during the re -entry.
The Soviet probe is similar to Venera 8launched a few days before, according to Space.com. That spacecraft became in July 1972 in the second ship in land successfully on the surface of Venus. Transmitted data from the infernal surface of Venus during 50 minutes and 11 seconds before succumbing to the hard planetary conditions.
In Venus, the surface temperature reaches 465 ° C.the pressure is 90 times higher to that of the Earth and the composition of the atmosphere is mostly of carbon dioxide, with dense clouds of sulfuric acid, which makes it Highly corrosive and uninhabitable for any technology or terrestrial way of life.
Kosmos 482 has a parachute That he would have helped him control the descent through the upper atmosphere of Venus, ‘but he would not bet that it will work now, and would mean that, if the reentry survives, he would fall strongly,’ says Langbroek.
In the re -entry model that Langbroek has developed along with his colleague Dominic Dirkx wearing Tudatastrodynamic software that has the aerospace faculty of the Technical University of Delft, in which it works, Kosmos is expected to reach a final speed of 233 kilometers per hour.
When and where will Kosmos 482 fall?
It is difficult to predict exactly when the ship will re -enter. Langbroek estimates that it could happen Around May 10although this forecast will refine as the date approaches. Uncertainty is due in large part To increase solar activitywhich is heating and expanding the Earth’s atmosphere, increasing friction and accelerating the loss of altitude of objects in orbit.
It is also difficult to foresee where the survival remains could fall. The exact location will depend on the precise moment and place in which the ship begins to disintegrate. In any case, The risk for inhabited areas is lowsince it is more likely that the remains fall in remote areas or in the ocean. If it impact on the mainland, it could offer valuable information on the durability of space materials after decades in orbit.
It is not the first time that predictions are made about the re -entry of Kosmos 482. In 2018, the Russian astronomer Pavel Shubin He estimated that the ship would fall between 2023 and 2025. Subsequent analysis in 2019 and 2022 adjusted that window, placing it between mid -2024 and mid -2027, with greater probability between 2025 and 2026.