ERC collapses and Puigdemont finalizes his “final blow”

About CKD the shadow begins to settle that it will suffer a significant disaster in the next elections in May. A weakness that could favor to the former Minister of Health Salvador Illaunless the fears about the rise of Junts in elections in which the leading role is inevitably monopolized at all times by the former president of the Generalitat of Catalonia Carles Puigdemont. The data handled by La Moncloa points in this direction and opens a hole of uncertainty about how far Puigdemont may be willing to go to achieve his goal of returning through the front door to the Generalitat.

Until now, the criterion of his personal safety has always prevailed in all his decisions, and ERC's rivals They have caricatured him as a “coward”but the amnesty now opens a political framework that is causing fear to arise in the circle of socialist power that Puigdemont will “make the number” of returning to Catalonia in the final stretch of the 12M campaign in order to do so. be arrested and try to change the direction of the elections.

The former president has already said that this electoral test is all or nothing: he will supposedly leave politics if he does not take command of the Generalitat again, and The amnesty opens a security cushion which he did not have in the two previous regional elections, in which he ran as a candidate, but without being able to set foot on Spanish soil because he was faced with the threat of undergoing the same judicial process as Oriol Junqueras and other pro-independence leaders judged by the Supreme Court.

Aragonès suffers more and more to make credible the orders he launches at the Sánchez Government

In the new political and judicial context that arises from the processing of the amnesty law, there are legal interpretations that suggest that, in the event that Puigdemont enters Catalonia, and in the middle of the campaign, he could be arrested, but that “in a matter of 24 hours” he would take to the streets because there would be no way to sustain his maintenance in prison in the middle of the electoral contest and when it would be a matter of days before the controversial norm would come into force, no matter how much the deadlines are extended in the Senate. In any case, it would be a competent decision for the Supreme Court.

In the PSOE they see in this hypothetical framework a complete blow of effect with incalculable consequences today in the demoscopic sphere, because there is still a long way to go until the campaign and because it cannot be brought forward either. how the electorate will emotionally evolve.

From the most official line of socialism, based on the reality of a part of the Catalan electorate, they maintain that the pragmatism and usefulness of the program represented by Salvador Illa will surprise with much greater support than expected at the polls. The Catalan business community wants to turn the page on the “procés” and believes that The political “burial” of the escaped former president would help a lot to take that step definitively.

But this community is much more than its economic and business power, and in the count on election night it will be seen whether the real Catalonia has weighed more in the vote, with its problems of drought and the functioning of the Health Administration, or, for On the contrary, the one that remains installed in the dream of 1-O and its derivatives.

Blockage risk

Now, the PSOE is aware that it faces a real risk of blockade, which would only wear down President Sánchez even more and in which it has a very reduced negotiating capacity if Illa wins at the polls, but with Puigdemont on the rise although there is no majority of the independence movement.

ERC and Junts have already immersed themselves in a stark battle of disqualifications and accusations, which can become counterproductive to their own interests because it increases citizens' disaffection with the sovereign cause. Esquerra, within its internal wars, has displaced Junqueras of the campaign and control of the party, with Pere Aragonès who is seen to be suffering more and more to make his orders to the Sánchez Government credible.

From Junts they warn that Puigdemont “has already beaten Junqueras”, who is disqualified by the Supreme Court, and they also highlight that they have studied all the options that the former Catalan president could be imprisoned, and “they are scarce.”

The amnesty gives the former president a security cushion that he did not have in the previous elections

Due to the “procés” he has not been tried, so it is unlikely that a judge will decide to decree his provisional detention for a crime that is in the process of being amnestied, not even if, once the measure of grace is approved, he is presented a preliminary ruling before the European Court, because the logical thing is that prudence prevails and a measure is not adopted that could be disproportionate if the EU gives the green light.

There is always the fear that some judge, they point out, will act on his own, especially in the treason case, which is being heard in Barcelona, ​​and terrorism, in the Supreme Court. It is not so clear that these two crimes are covered by the amnesty law.but from Junts they understand that the argument for not decreeing provisional imprisonment is the same as in the case of the “procés.”