It is often said that reality exceeds fiction. Although sometimes they also play to anticipate each other. That is what could happen with Blackout, the 2012 novel published by Marc Elsberg, the director of the German network agency (the regulator of the electricity grid in the country). Elsberg’s book describes a blackout throughout Europe caused by a cyber attack. For greater realism, The book is based on interviews with intelligence and computer security officials.
The novel Start with a collapse of electrical networks throughout the continentplunging the population in the dark. The prolonged electricity cut causes serious problems: lack of gasoline, telephone, food in supermarkets, innovative ATMs, nuclear disasters, etc.
The book became a sales success and translated into more than 15 languages. His readers discovered that Today almost nothing works without electricity: from the water supply to the suppliers in the gas stations. Like all Spain in just 3 hours.
Elsberg began working in the book in 2008. Just before finishing it, the Office of Technological Evaluation (Tab) of Germany published its own scientific study on what a prolonged blackout would be like (PDF in German). Entitled The vulnerability of modern societies: a case study of a large scale blackoutThe study revealed many alarming data.
For example, people would not only run out of drinking water, but the pipes themselves would be irreparably contaminated in a matter of weeks. Chaos would be unleashed quickly Because all forms of communication (mobile phones, radio, television, internet, etc.) would stop workingand people would run out of batteries for their devices.
Who had emergency generators were left without fuel because The authorities confiscated the available supply (gas stations require energy) for emergency services.
“Due to the almost complete penetration of electrical devices in our life and work environments -the study points out -, The consequences of a generalized and prolonged electricity cut would cause a situation of particularly high quality damage. All critical infrastructure would be affected and it would be almost impossible to prevent a collapse of society as a whole. ”
Elsberg took into account some study findings in his novel, but states that, in essence, the situation had already described well. During the first days, people dealt well with discomfort. Everyone had some food and water at home, and supermarkets also had provisions for several days. But Without electricity, money could not withdraw from the bank. There was a purchasing avalanche and prices shot quickly. The unnecessary things to survive became useless, while food and water became unavailable.
After the first days, people began to starve. The strong began to impose their will on the weak; andThe rule of law collapsed and those who had weapons used them. Two weeks after the blackout, the civilization collapsed.
The “good news”, so to speak, is that neither the study of the German organism nor Elsberg’s novel are very focused on the role of distributed renewable energies is the most ignored factor in Elsberg’s novel. But Solar energy is only good if the roof and walls are still intact. On the other hand, if your house is the only one with electricity, the neighbors will soon come and ask you to share the light, possibly at gunpoint.
In Elsberg’s novel, government’s first action When electricity is restored after 13 days it is a general amnesty; No crime committed during the blackout will be investigated. The courts would not have been able to handle all cases.
The reality is that modern civilization is extremely complex, efficient in many ways, but increasingly vulnerable to disturbances. As expressed by British historian Timothy Gordon Ash, after Hurricane Katrina: “The great lesson of the Katrina is that the cortex of the civilization we step on is always very thin. A tremor and you collapse”