Earthquake, tsunami, damage, disaster. This is what the survey by the Center d’Estudis d’Opinió –CEO, Catalan CIS– reflects in the third wave of 2025 in the political panorama of Catalonia. Aliança Catalana sinks Junts into the worst data in its history, highlighting Puigdemont’s leadership, which cannot prevent the collapse of its brand in favor of the extreme right. The former Catalan president is only preferred by 8% of Catalans as the new tenant of Plaça de Sant Jaume, which agrees with his critics who consider that leadership from a distance and without presence is a handicap that is difficult to solve. Her great rival, Silvia Orriols, is preferred by 7.9%, in a clear tie with Puigdemont.
The current Catalan president, Salvador Illa, is the favorite to repeat his position for 20.6% of Catalans and the PSC would win the elections again with 38-40 deputies, although three years before the elections its electorate is demobilized so it could lose two deputies. According to Opina 360, the PSC drops 1.1 points, prolonging its slight negative trend and is now 2.3 points below the results obtained in 2024, with an extrapolation of only 36 seats. For his part, Pedro Sánchez is preferred by the Catalans as the tenant of Moncloa with 31.6% support compared to Alberto Núñez Feijóo who is left with a scant 3.5%, being surpassed by Santiago Abascal with 6.7% preference.
Behind the socialists is the Republican Left, which would obtain between 22 and 23 deputies, up to two more than at present, although its leader, Oriol Junqueras, is only preferred as president by 7.3%, below Puigdemont and Orriols. Junts and Aliança Catalana would tie for third place in a range between 19 and 20 seats, although Junts would win in votes. The disaster for Junts is the loss of 15 seats due to the unstoppable rise of Aliança Catalana, which takes 21% of its electorate. The figure could get even worse because Junts’ vote loyalty remains at a meager 55%.
In the struggle between the Popular Party and Vox, the Popular Party loses its leadership in the hands of Ignacio Garriga’s party, who consolidates the election with between 13 and 14 deputies against a PP that could leave 3 and stay between 12 and 13. The main problem for the Popular Party is the loss of the young vote that massively goes to the ranks of the far-right Vox. In the rear, the Commons, which loses steam in each election although they maintain their 6 deputies, and the CUP, which would obtain between 3 and 4 parliamentarians, so it could lose one.
According to these data, the majority of the left –PSC-ERC-Comunes– could repeat government although they would need the CUP if they opt for the lower band of the strip. The independence movement loses any opportunity to have the majority and even less so because of the animosity of ERC and the CUP towards the far-right. Altogether, the extreme right could obtain 33-34 deputies, 25% of the Parliament.
Aliança Catalana focuses its success on establishing two topics of conversation: the massification of immigration, linking it with insecurity, and the loss of traditional values. Although data from the Ministry of the Interior indicates that robberies with violence, robberies in homes or establishments, theft of vehicles, thefts or homicides have been reduced by 50% compared to 2013, the citizen perception is that insecurity and immigration go hand in hand and is the main problem for 33% of Catalans. Setting these issues, Aliança Catalana takes 21.4% of the votes from Junts, 10% from ERC, 10% from Vox and 6.5% from the PSC, and also fishing in the CUP electorate.
Orriols manages to capture a transversal electorate, obtaining returns in all electoral segments and attracting many young and new voters. The CEO’s X-ray is so surprising that it places 32% of Aliança voters as non-independence supporters. In fact, the CEO places 53% of Catalans against independence, the highest percentage since 2010.
The CEO survey is the largest carried out in Catalonia with 2,000 interviews. In addition to the Parliamentary elections, questions have been asked about the Congressional elections. The PSC would obtain 20 deputies, one more than at present, ERC would rise to 9-10 deputies – today it has 7 – while Junts would benefit from the fact that Aliança Catalana does not want to compete in these elections and would be left with between 5 and 6, one less. PP and Vox would also obtain between 5 and 6 deputies, with a significant rise of the extreme right that would rise to 4 deputies. The biggest upset goes to Sumar, who would lose up to 4 deputies – he would only obtain 3 – and Podemos would obtain 1 for the province of Barcelona.