Next Monday, September 1 will begin climatological autumn After a summer marked by very high temperatures, The most intense heat wave recorded so faran extremely warm Mediterranean and serious fires in the peninsular northwest.
And will do it with higher temperatures than usual and rains above the average in the Mediterranean area. This is indicated by Samuel Biener, meteored meteorologist, who anticipates one month of September with Thermal anomalies between 1 and 3 degrees above the average in large areas of the country.
What will temperatures be
The first meteored projections indicate that during the first half of September, the Mediterranean coast, under Ebro, Castilla-La Mancha and most AndalusiaThey could register Thermal anomalies up to +3 degrees Regarding normal for that time of the year.
On the other hand, in the peninsular north the values would be closer to the average, and even with slight cold anomalies in areas of Galicia, northwest of Castilla y León, Cantabrian, Navarra and Occident Pyreneesl. In the Archipelagos and Centro-Sur Peninsular, the warm anomalies would be more moderate, placing temperatures up to 1ºC higher with respect to the average.
Although uncertainty increases for the second part of the month, the “most likely” scenario, according to Biener, points out that temperatures can be 1-3 ºC higher with respect to the average of the dates in large areas of the interior and in mountainous areas of the Peninsula. For the coastlines and the archipelagos do not glimpse large anomalies at the moment.
Is there a risk of this fall?
As for rainfall, the expert expects that During the first fortnight, rains higher than the average are recorded in the north of the Gulf of Valencia, the northern end and the Canary Islands. In the rest of the country, the driest conditions will predominate.
The high temperatures of the Mediterranean Sea, which in recent days are registering values between 27-29ºC,They use the risk of extreme phenomena, such as torrential rains or the formation of a Dana. However, Biener clarifies that a cold Dana or Gota does not necessarily imply intense rainfall, or that all extreme episodes are related to this phenomenon.
In addition, he warns that a hot sea, by itself, cannot cause a great event of torrential rainfall and emphasizes that These phenomena can only be anticipated a few days in advance due to their erratic evolutions.
In the face of the second half of September, there is no “especially defined” trend. The models do not show a dominant atmospheric pattern, which suggests possible changes in the prognosis. In fact, a single well -located cold air decoupling can turn a rainfall balance in a matter of hours.