The upper stage of a Chinese commercial rocket It has fragmented in space a few days after its launchadding new remains of space debris in an especially sensitive orbital region. Through that area they pass the International Space Station and a relevant part of the constellation starlink of SpaceXincluding satellites located in orbits lower than the bulk of the network.
The rocket Zhuque-2Edeveloped by the Chinese company LandSpacereached orbit on June 9 with two direct communications satellites with mobile phones. The fragmentation occurred shortly after, possibly when the upper stage had to perform a maneuver to withdraw from orbit. The Space Force The United States confirmed the incident on space-track.org, the platform it uses to publish orbital data.
In its advisory, the Space Force noted that ‘tracked fragments are being incorporated into routine assessments of potential conjunctions to support the safety of spaceflight.’ He also indicated that ‘there are currently no threats to human spaceflight’ and that the analysis continues.
Although the upper stage has fragmented, it has not completely disintegrated. The main body remains in orbit, accompanied by the remains of space debris generated. Before the incident, this second stage measured 8 meters long and had 3.35 meters in diameter.
The biggest risk is for Starlink
The main body now moves to between 335 and 424 kilometers altitudewith an inclination of 54.5 degrees with respect to the equator. The highest part of that orbit crosses that of the International Space Station, although friction with the upper layers of the atmosphere should cause the fragments to lose height relatively quickly and soon be below the ISS.
The clearest risk does not seem to be at the station, but on the lowest flying satellites. The remains could approaching hundreds of Starlinkespecially those dedicated to direct connection with devices and recently launched units that have not yet reached their final operational orbits.
Between 100 and 150 new remains
For now, the Space Force has not incorporated these fragments into the official catalog of artificial objects in space. Darren McKnightsenior technical researcher at LeoLabshas calculated that the breakage could generate between 100 and 150 new remains.
The altitude at which the incident occurred prevents the worst scenario. At that point, atmospheric friction still has an appreciable effect and most fragments should re-enter the atmosphere within months. The normal thing is that almost all the material burns during reentry. The problem would be much greater if a similar fragmentation occurred above 650 kilometerswhere remains can remain for decades or longer.
China and space junk
The Zhuque-2E case adds to a worrying trend. China is increasing its orbital activity and also its contribution to the space debris problem. For years, many countries left spent rocket bodies in orbit after releasing their payloads, but it is now more common to reserve fuel to direct the upper stages toward controlled reentry.
Russia and the old Soviet Union continue to accumulate the bulk of rocket body debris in long-duration orbits, followed by China and USA. The difference is in recent evolution. According to an analysis by expert Jim Shell, the mass of Chinese rocket bodies in those orbits has increased more than 150% in the last five yearswhile the figures for Russia and the United States decrease or remain stable.
Rocket bodies are a particularly problematic source of space debris because they are not small parts. They are large, heavy structures and often retain traces of propellant or gases under pressure.. If they are marooned in orbit, they cannot be maneuvered or removed and an explosion can multiply the number of dangerous objects.
McKnight describes the fragmentation of Zhuque-2E as ‘a minor space security issue’but the context does not invite optimism. He Long March 6Aanother Chinese rocket, has already been involved in much more serious incidents. Two explosions associated with this model dispersed more than 1,000 fragments in a higher area of low Earth orbitwhere they could remain for decades or even centuries.
‘Three of the four main fragmentation episodes in low Earth orbit are of Chinese originand two of them correspond to explosions of Chinese rocket bodies in the last four years,’ says McKnight.