The weather will change Spain during the next few hours. The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) warns of a progressive instability that will lead to an episode of heavy rains, storms and a general drop in temperatures. The main cause of this radical change will be the entry of a polar air mass and the subsequent isolation of a DANA.
According to the information note issued by the AEMET, the increase in instability will be caused by the elongation of a trough on the Peninsula and the subsequent formation of a DANA to the north of the peninsula. At the same time, the position of the high pressures around the British Isles and the North Sea will open the passage for the entrance of a much colder air flow coming from high latitudes.
This thermal corridor will favor a general drop in thermometerscausing the values to tend to normalize or even remain below what is usual for the time, with a drop in temperatures that will be notable in the northwest quadrant of the peninsula.
Persistent rainfall and risk of storms in the Mediterranean and Balearic Islands
The increase in instability will be accompanied by the entry of a humid flow in prelittorals and littoralsso it is possible that intense and persistent rainfall in areas of Balearic Islands and on the peninsular Mediterranean slope. Likewise, showers could also be recorded in other parts of the interior of the peninsula and in the Cantabrian.
Although there is a significant uncertainty On the exact position of the DANA and the trough, and the surface flows, the main scenarios suggest that the largest accumulations will be recorded in the Valencian Community, Catalonia, Balearic Islands, Region of Murcia and eastern Andalusia. In these areas, showers accompanied by hail, strong gusts of wind and rainfall that could locally exceed the limits are not ruled out. 100 l/m².
Weather forecast: this is how the storm will evolve during Saturday and Sunday
With the information currently available, the episode will gain intensity during the weekendalthough meteorological models indicate that its exact evolution may still undergo changes.
He Saturdaya front system will enter through the Cantabrian while stormy showers develop in areas of the peninsular interior. Starting in the second half of the day, the Rains will intensify and extend towards Catalonia, the Valencian Community, Murcia, eastern Andalusia and the Balearic Islandswhere they may be accompanied by a storm. The drop in temperatures will be generalized and will even be notable in the northwest quadrant of the peninsula.
He Sunday It could be the most adverse day in the eastern peninsula. The heavy and persistent rains They will once again hit the coastal and pre-coastal regions of the Mediterranean and the Balearic archipelago. On a more irregular basis, showers will continue in other parts of the south and interior, while light rains will persist on the Cantabrian slope. Showers and storms could also be recorded in other parts of the interior. In addition, temperatures would drop again in most of the Peninsula, more markedly in the eastern half.
Given the changing nature of the retrograde circulations associated with this type of cold pockets, the AEMET advises following weather updatesgiven the possibility of adjustments in the trajectory of the episode.
Accumulated over 100 l/m² and Meteored analysis
To the predictions of the official body, the analyzes of the meteorological portal are added Meteoredwhich points out that as of Friday a polar jet It will trace large meanders that will favor the rise of the anticyclone towards the British Isles. This will drive wetter easterly or northeasterly winds and direct a retrograde evolving trough (from northeast to southwest) that will give rise to a DANA quite deep in the vicinity of the Peninsulawithout ruling out the appearance of some secondary vortex that further complicates the forecast.
According to the meteorologist Samuel Bienerfrom Meteored, “the forecasts will surely change in the next model updates, since these retrograde circulations are complicated to model, to which we must add that the Mediterranean continues to present temperatures above the average for the time.” However, he warns that “it is not unreasonable to think of possible local accumulations of more than 100 l/m² in the Valencian Community, Catalonia and even the Balearic Islands.”
According to the latest updates of the European model cited by Meteoredthe rains could intensify on Saturday afternoon and evening in areas of Barcelona, Girona, Balearic Islands, Region of Murcia and eastern Andalusiaaccompanied by storms, hailstorms and strong gusts of wind.
Likewise, the trend on Sunday will be the same. During the first half of the day, rainfall could be very heavy in the coastal areas of the Valencian Community, Girona, Barcelona, Tarragona, Balearic Islands, the Region of Murcia and Andalusiaaccording to these forecasts.