The CIS published its September barometer yesterday, the first after the summer break and after the crisis that broke out in Ceuta due to the assault on July 30 and 31. Therefore, it fully reflects the effect on the electorate that the situation in the autonomous city may have had. In general terms, the organization led by the socialist José Félix Tezanos interprets that the PSOE and Pedro Sánchez show some wear and tear due to the crisis, but continues to present the socialists as the most voted. The PP would pick up part of that discontent, but a very small part, while the big beneficiary would be Vox.
However, and as is usually the case, the scenario that Tezanos draws is very far from the interpretation made by the rest of the private pollsters, with fewer resources and who tend to be more accurate in their forecasts. LA RAZÓN has prepared an average of the voting intention of each party, according to surveys published throughout the month of September by the country’s main polling companies, to observe the differences.
The first and most striking difference is that the scenario on which the CIS is betting in terms of voting intention of the two main parties is practically the inverse of what the rest of the companies detect. The Tezanos organization places the PSOE ahead, with 31% of voting intention in a hypothetical general election, while it places the PP at 25.5% of the vote. The rest of the pollsters manage similar figures, but changing the subject: They place the PP ahead, with an average of 32.8% of the vote, while the PSOE falls to second place with 26%. In fact, none of these polling companies believe that the PSOE could be reaching 28% of the votes right now, while none of them consider that the PP is going to drop below 31%.
This means that Tezanos is underrepresenting the PP by no less than 7.7 points compared to the average of the rest and is inflating the PSOE by placing it 7 points above. If the CIS barometer published yesterday estimates that between the PP and the PSOE there is a difference of 5.5 points in favor of the socialists, the polling companies believe that this difference is 6.8, but in favor of the popular ones.
This is a common dynamic in CIS polls, widely criticized for favoring Sánchez’s interests, but in reality they tend to underestimate the right more than they overestimate the left.
What the CIS and the other pollsters do agree on is the trends. There is unanimity when it comes to detecting that the Ceuta crisis and its management are taking a greater toll on the Government and are benefiting the opposition. This is something that, without demographic data behind it, is clearly palpable in the political environment: the Executive is alone, defending a version that no one buys, while the partners and the opposition are maintaining a very harsh tone in their criticism of Sánchez and ministers such as Fernando Grande-Marlaska.
They also agree that Vox is the big beneficiary of this crisis, although they differ on how much. Private polls place Santiago Abascal’s party with a voting intention of 18.7%. This is a very considerable figure that meets expectations. It must be taken into account that its highest historical vote percentage was the 18.92% obtained in the last regional elections in Castilla y León and the poll forecasts are placing it in very similar results. This in part is preventing the PP from fully collecting the remains of the socialists’ poor results.
The CIS, on the other hand, also sees an improvement in Vox but estimates it much more timid. The July barometer, the one before the one published yesterday, placed Santiago Abascal’s party at 15.3% of the vote. The September one raises that estimate to 16.6%. This is an increase of 1.3 percentage points and it is the party, by far, that is growing the most. However, it is 3.4 points below the pollsters’ forecast.
With the rest of the games, there is much less difference. Pollsters give Add 6.2% of the vote, compared to 6.1% for the CIS. As to Canpollsters estimate him at 3.2% of the vote, compared to 2.5% for the CIS, a difference of 0.7 points.