As Aemet has warned, the first half of summer 2026 has been the warmest recorded in Spain since 1961. A direct consequence of climate change that, if measures are not taken, could cause Madrid to reach the climate of Marrakech in the next 25 years. Although this would not be the only area affected, the regions bathed by the Mediterranean They are already experiencing the loss of their mitigating effect and the rise in temperatures.
As revealed an investigation directed by the CSICthe speed of The sea breezes of the western Mediterranean have been mitigating by almost 11% on average since 1981, globally, and has suffered a loss of density of 12.7%. However, in the Spanish peninsular coastline These numbers increase up to 17%reaching 17.6% in the Balearic Islands. An increase that would be directly affecting the temperatures and the thermal sensation of these areas.
Heat waves weaken the strength of sea breezes
A situation that is worsened by heat waves, since periods of high temperatures cause the breezes to weaken a little. 4.8% on average on the Spanish coast and 8% in the Balearic Islands. A situation that, according to the recorded data, has caused the average surface air temperature has increased by 1.3ºC and on the sea surface by 1ºC. As explained by Shalenys Bedoya-Valestt, the lead author of the study, “it is paradoxical: warming causes more heat, and these, in turn, further weaken the coastal wind that helps alleviate them.”
This causes the mitigating effect of the heat that the Mediterranean Sea used to exert, specifically its breezes, on the Spanish coasts is losing its effectivenessincreasing thermal stress and, therefore, affecting the health of those who reside in these areas. As explained in the study, cities such as Barcelona, Málaga, Valencia, Castellón and Palma de Mallorca are experiencing breezes 17% to 25% weakerwhich increases the risk of heat stroke, among other risks.
Sea breezes originate when there is a marked contrast between the temperature of the land and that of the sea. A previous study, prepared by the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) Foundation, revealed that The Mediterranean basin was warming 20% faster than the rest of the geographical areas, which has caused an increase of 0.4 degrees on average since 1980. Which should result in stronger breezes.
This could cause changes in the hydrological cycle.
However, as this study has shown, the opposite is happening. As Bedoya-Valestt explained, “we observe that the breezes are increasingly weaker, althoughe more frequent in times of the year where they occur lesslike in winter.” That is why the first hypothesis that the research team is considering is that climate change is changing the nature of the movement of air masses. “favoring the warm tropical continental air to be ‘trapped’ over the Mediterranean and cause more intense heat waves.
Likewise, this effect would be causing the hot air ‘trapped’ in the area to stabilize the atmosphere and slow it down.”the air movements that drive the breeze, weakening it“This could end up causing changes in the hydrological cycle, increasing drought episodes and soil dryness, which could lead to a desertification of the area. For this reason, researchers claim the importance of knowing the reasons why the breezes are changing.