Hydrogen, electricity, used oil or CO2 are some of the ideas that consider the aviation sector to decarbonize in 2050. Will it achieve it? «It is a great challenge, because in aviation you have to take into account structural details such as weight, which makes it complex to find solutions. In addition, 2050 sounds very far, but in this industry it is like saying the day after tomorrow, because between a plane is designed and it goes to the market. It needs to combine measures and a lot of collaboration and investments are needed, ”says Oscar Castro Álvarez, member of the Official College of Aeronautical Engineers of Spain (Coiae) and author of his sustainability report.
The sector represents 2% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and according to the European Air Safety Agency (AESA) by 2050, its emissions will have been reduced by 69%: 5% thanks to hydrogen and electric planes, while sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) will represent 37%.
Under the acronym of “Sustainable Aviation Fuel” or sustainable aviation fuel, mixtures are hidden that now represent the great bet of aviation for decarbonization. They are manufactured from organic waste such as used kitchen oil. One step further is represented by the ESAF also called synthetic fuel that uses only local raw materials such as water, the CO2 captured (added advantage because it reduces the concentration of this gas in the atmosphere) and the electricity of renewable origin. The advantage of these two fuels is that their carbon footprint is much lower than that of the kerosene: between 60 and 90% less (the latter in the case of the ESAF) and that do not need changes in the design of the airplanes.
Start year
The main problem is the cost. Meanwhile, synthetic fuels right now have A production price of 4,000 to 8,225 euros per ton, conventional aviation fuel is around 650-816 As a ton, “that is, it is at least more expensive,” recalls the latest aviation study published by the Ecology and Development Foundation (Ecodes). Although production technology is known, there is an industrial climbing problem. «Right in Spain, SAF occurs from used kitchen oil. There are two floors in Cartagena and Huelva. And the first projects for the production of synthetic fuels, ESAF begins to appear, ”says Marcos Raufast, Project Manager of the Ecodes public policy area and SAF specialist. Spain starts with some advantage to produce this type of fuel since it has abundant renewable electricity. In fact, according to Ecodes, the final manufacturing price could be reduced by 2,000 euros if it was manufactured locally.
The truth is that 2025 marks the output pistol for these fuels and not only by the plants announced. As of this year, flights with departure in Europe must have 2% SAF in their deposits. This is what the Recueleu Aviation Plan establishes, a strategy that considers an increase in the mandatory percentage of use of these fuels until 2050. That year, the airplanes will have to use at least 60% of SAF and already in 2030 there are remarkable objectives of ESAF. For then, «At least 1.2% of the fuel supplied at the EU forced airports must be synthetic, which would increase to 35% in 2050. With the plants in project, the production of biological fuel of 2035 can be covered. However, synthetic fuel production needs to be increased because only in 2030 almost 100,000 tons will be required in our airports, ”says Raufast. But be careful, clarifies, because investments are needed. “There are companies that are uninvietary in these plants because, for the moment, they do not get a good production price, although we know that demand in the coming years will be there.” In fact, a few days ago, Shell (one of the greatest world suppliers of sustainable fuel) canceled its project to build a SAF factory in Rotterdam.
Dependence
Another of the problems referred to, among others, the Ecodes report is the scarcity of raw material and the external dependence that it can assume. «A third of the subjects used right now to manufacture in Spain come from Asia. Here there is not enough used kitchen oil and if we look at the statistics of the Ministry for Ecological Transition in 2023, 36% of the oil came from Malaysia. At the end of 2024 in a single month 20,000 tons were imported that, do not forget that they may be subject to fraud or may be mixed with palm oil or have false emissions certificates. In addition to monitoring what comes, we are concerned that due to this shortage of raw material, the third parties dependence increases. A small amount for aviation is still taking place and it has to be imported, ”says Ecodes coach.
Hydrogen or single sky
Electrifying aviation today «is unfeasible. The adoption of the SAF can be immediate and does not need large investments to renew the fleets of airplanes, ”they say from Moeve., One of the companies that is investing most in these developments. The weight of the batteries involves a problem for aircraft, difficult to solve especially for long journeys. «Electrification is only feasible for flights of less than 500 km and less than 100 seats», According to the Ecodes report. For its part, the commitment to hydrogen continues on the table, but as in the case of SAF it should not be forgotten that other sectors, such as maritime or road transport, also need to reduce emissions. Will they go into competition? Will there be enough for so much demand?
At the “political” level at least, some competition between sectors is established. For example, they comment from the Coaie, when the French or Spanish government has been able to eliminate flights of less than two hours to enhance train travel. A measure not exempt from controversy. According to his report, «the debate on the prohibition of air routes for replacement for railroad connections focuses on the range of up to 500 km. In longer distances, or in short journeys but with a complex orography, the European environmental agency does not dare to rule if the net result would be beneficial in terms of impact on our environment ». However, organizations such as Ecodes are clear that “it is necessary to conduct flights, especially business or events, it is also true that kerosene does not have a tax in Europe,” says its spokesman. Do not forget that The number of flights in 2024 is already similar to that before the pandemic And that “the private flight sector has not stopped growing,” says Castro.
Optimize routes and improve land operations also enter the sector’s measurement package; These two legs could Reduce emissions by 10%. «The single European sky remains in project, although it is true that countries have a hard time giving up these competitions. On the other hand, there are many parts of the operation of the aircraft to work to reduce emissions. For example, on land, that the plane is handled with its engines to go on the rolling tracks is a nonsense in terms of efficiency, ”concludes Castro.
The first projects in Spain start for the ESAF
► ESAF’s first projects are starting on the Peninsula. In the case of Moeve, a company that already produces 1.1 million tons of annual biofuels (SAF and Renovable Diesel HVO), the company has just signed a collaboration agreement with Zaffra to develop E-SAF facilities in Spain and has joined the global impact coalition (GIC) to advance the production of these fuels.
«We are signing agreements with partners to study the viability of its manufacture in Spain through different processes. With GIC we study olefin methanol technology; While with Zaffra, the use of Fischer-Tropsch technology. We want the aeronautical sector, which is very relevant to the economy, to have a sustainable future and Spain has the potential to lead its production in Europe. The main challenge in this sector is to ensure and guarantee the raw material to produce second generation SAF. We need a stable regulatory and cooperation framework to continue attracting investment, ”says their spokesmen.