A nuclear winter is a theoretical concept, but if the climate scenario planned after a large -scale nuclear war, in which the smoke and soot of fire storms block sunlight, it became a reality, Global temperatures would fall dramatically, extinguishing most of agriculture.
A nuclear winter could last more than a decade, which It would cause a generalized famine for those who survive the devastation caused by explosions. Now, a team from the State University of Pennsylvania, led by Yuning Shi, has precisely modeled how various nuclear winter scenarios could affect world corn production, the most cultivated cereal in the world.
The Shi team used the Cycles agroecosystems model to predict how the consequences of a nuclear war would affect crops. The consequences, reflected in a study in Enviromental Research Letters, indicate that An event of this type could devastate world corn crops, reducing production by up to 87% due to the blockade of sunlight and increased UV-B radiation.
The authors point out that the level of decrease in corn harvest would vary according to the magnitude of the conflict. A regional nuclear war, which would send around 5.5 million tons of soot to the atmosphere, It could reduce global corn production by 7 %. A large -scale overall war, which would inject 165 million tons of soot to the atmosphere, could cause an 80 % drop in annual corn production.
In total, the study He simulated six nuclear war scenarios with different soot injections. Due to the global importance of crop, the authors chose to model corn collapse in a nuclear winter to represent the expected destiny of agriculture in general.
Shi pointed out that A 80 % drop in the world production of crops would have catastrophic consequences, causing a generalized world food crisis. Even a 7 % drop in the world production of crops would have a serious impact on the food system and the world economy, probably causing an increase in food insecurity and hunger.
“We simulate corn production at 38,572 locations under six nuclear stakes of increasing gravitywith soot injections between 5 and 165 tons -Shi explains in a statement -. This study expands our understanding of global resilience and adaptation in response to catastrophic climatic disturbances. ”
In addition to considering the effects of the massive amounts of soot in the atmosphere, The study also modeled the increase in UV-B radiation (a type of ultraviolet radiation that can cause DNA damageoxidative stress and a reduction in photosynthesis in plants) that would reach the earth’s surface in a nuclear winter, which could further limit agriculture.
Shi said that this is the first study to estimate the scope of the damage caused by UV-B radiation to agriculture after nuclear explosions, which would reach its maximum point between six and eight years after World War. This could further reduce corn production by 7 %, which, in the worst case, would result in a total drop of 87 % in corn production. Ozone in the high concentrations of the Earth’s atmosphere effectively absorbs most of the UV radiation that the planet receives from the sun, but a nuclear war would dismantle this capacity.
“The explosion and fireball of atomic explosions produce nitrogen oxides in the stratosphere -adds shi -. The presence of nitrogen oxides and heating of the Absorbent soot could quickly destroy ozone, increasing UV-B radiation levels on the earth’s surface. This would damage the plant tissue and further limit world food production. ”
While predictions point to potentially catastrophic falls in the production of corn varieties currently cultivated, the study concludes that change to varieties of Crops that can grow under colder conditions with shorter cultivation seasons could increase world agricultural production in 10% compared to the lack of adaptation. However, the availability of seeds for these crops could become a serious problem.
The proposed solution is to prepare “Agricultural Resilience Kits” before any nuclear disaster, with specific seeds for each region and weatherfor crop varieties that can grow in colder conditions, with shorter cultivation seasons and survive at lower temperatures.
“These kits would help maintain food production during the unstable years after a nuclear war, while the supply chains and infrastructure chains are recovered -adds Armen Kemanian, co -author of the study -. If we want to survive, we must be prepared, even for unthinkable consequences. Recall that catastrophes of this nature can occur not only by a nuclear war, but also, for example, by violent volcanic eruptions. One might think that studies of this nature are simply an introspection, but they force us to understand the fragility of the biosphere: all of all living beings and how they interact with each other and with the environment. “