After the latest trade agreements signed by the Trump administration, the narrative ridiculous that tariffs consumers pay them Americans.
That mantra was repeated to ignore two essential factors: the high level of Producers’ overcapacity exporters and the complexity and efficiency of supply chains Global
Some biased analyzes assumed, incorrectly, that price transmission was generated in a chain of producer-computer, when there are many more links.
Tariffs can be criticized for many reasons, but It is a mistake to affirm that they cause inflation because they do not suppose more currency units in the system or more money speed. Moreover, if global exporters are believed that tariffs are assumed by the US consumer would not have panicked and negotiated immediately.
Trump had three aces in the manga: the enormous level of overcapacity of global exporters, the fallacy that they can replace the US consumer with another market and knowledge, as a negotiator, that the exporting countries had no letters with which to launch orders to the United States because they faced themselves to die by circulating capital.
Everyone knew that Your surpluses commercial They are not the fruit of cooperation spontaneous between free companies but the result of years of obstacles to US companies and barriers to choose winners and losers.
Trump has shown the world that in April we did not live in a global free trade paradise and that the enormous commercial deficit of the United States is not due to free cooperation between companies but to the interference of protectionist states that impose gigantic commercial barriers to US and local companies and, at the same time, exempt from those barriers to countries that interest them politically.
Trump has shown who were naked among the leaders who complained a lot about tariff ads, but then refused to eliminate their commercial barriers.
The strategy made all the meaning: threatening with huge tariffs knowing that they had no letters, forcing negotiation and balance the balance of global trade. If countries eliminated their barriers, tariffs were eliminated. If they did not, they recognized that they would assume greater tariffs. Book negotiation where biased analysis assumed that the United States was the weak part but the Trump administration knew it was the opposite.
Many countries have preferred higher tariffs before eliminating their commercial barriers. Because? It is simple. Many countries prefer to keep their tariffs And barriers because They can power their government.
The most important thing is that The world is better Today after negotiations.
The Trump administration has reached important agreements with powers such as Japan and strategic countries in Asia, laying the foundations for an imminent pact with the European Union. The historical agreement between the United States and Japan is a clear example, both for its size and for its symbology.
The agreements with the United Kingdom, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines and other key countries in the exporting world lead to the European Union realizing the importance of reaching a similar agreement or being weakened and at risk that supply chains will move to other countries.
Japanese products will have a 15%tariff, less than 25%threatened, but above the previous average of 10%. Although Japan undertakes to import trucks, rice and American agricultural goods, flexible by its import system, prefers to keep part of its barriers and therefore accepts 15%tariffs. Japan will channel $ 550,000 million in investments in the US, mainly for sectors such as pharmacy, semiconductors and strategic mineral extraction. All this implies a very positive increase in employment and exports for both countries.
To this agreement are added those that have closed with Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam and the United Kingdom, all of them with important aspects.
The most relevant aspect is that these agreements limit the possibility of China to make “Origin Washing” and Canalize products through Vietnam and other countries. Indonesia eliminates 99% of its tariff barriers for US exports, unlocks access to minerals such as nickel and guarantees opening for industrial and agricultural goods. Philippines accepts a 19% tariff on Filipino products while US products are exempt from tariffs.
In parallel, Trump reached a historical agreement with China that, now, after the agreement with Vietnam, Japan and the Philippines, together with the Australian agreement, makes global trade more free and, above all, more fair.
After closing the pact with Japan, worldwide attention focuses on the European Union.
The European Union had the easiest agreement of all, because it only had to listen to the recommendations of the Draghi report and eliminate its commercial barriers. However, the negotiators of the European Union have been waiting, thinking that historical agreements such as that of the United Kingdom or Japan would not be closed.
The European Union cannot be allowed to sabotage an agreement because Japan or the United Kingdom would take advantage of its position to capture European export market share.
According to “Financial Times” and Bloomberg, an A would closevery positive sane For everyone with a 15%base tariff. European companies that invest and produce in the United States are exempt.
The model “15% tariff exclusions Sectors ”, inspired by the agreement reached with Japan, it seems that preferred by the negotiators of the European Union.
It is true that the United States He has managed to impose Its conditions on most negotiating fronts because it had all the murders in the manga, but it is no less true that all agreements are very positive for both parties, generating greater investment, growth and a more realistic commercial environment. The agreement with the European Union is the last great challenge and would consolidate an era of minor barriers to trade and “middle tariffs” with a very positive sector opening for all.
As much as the people who promote the Anti-Trump narrative, these agreements have reminded us that they have reminded us that We did not live in a world of free tradethat trade tariffs and obstacles were the norm in global trade and that, now an environment is now approaching in which commercial scales will have more to do with spontaneous cooperation between companies and less with the barriers of world statism.
The United States Agreement with the European Union will demonstrate that it is good for everyone, that European companies will continue to export and the balance is balanced towards a more fair and efficient agreement for all.