The asteroid 2024 YR4 It has become today that greater risk has impact on the earth When he approaches her again in 2032. NASA and ESA have re -updated their data on the trajectory of the asteroid that is currently moving away from the earth; They have uploaded them to 3.1% and al 2.8%respectively. There is a margin of just over two months before 2024 YR4 is too far to observe it and we have to wait for the next time I spend near the earth, in 2028to obtain more precise data on the probability of impact.
2024 YR4 is an asteroid with an estimated diameter of Between 40 and 90 meters. It was first detected by the Observatory ATLAS from Chile at the end of December and entered the list Sentry from NASA, which monitors possible impacts against the Earth, shortly after, with an estimate of the 1% probability for December 22, 2032. Since then, new observations have increased the risk of impact, which He descended for a few days this month, and then traced up to the current 3.1% and 2.8% of NASA and the European Space Agency.
It is about higher impact risk recorded so farsurpassing to 2.7% asteroid reached Apophis detected in 2004. The impact was foreseen to 2029but subsequent observations were reducing the percentage to zerowhen it was concluded that the earth was definitely out of its passage.
Most likely, with a 96.9% According to NASA and a 97.2% For ESA, the same thing happens with YR4. Apophis reached a Level 4 on the Turin Impact Risk Scalesuperior to Level 3 from YR4, but this was due to its size, with 375 meters in diameter. Yr4, much smaller, does not imply a global or regional threat, although could sweep a city in the worst case.
The international response to 2024 YR4 is being coordinated by the SMPAGacronym in English of Space Missions Advisor, of the UN. The next step is to use space telescope capabilities James Webbthat orbits the land at 1.2 million kilometers away, to study 2024 YR4, something that will take place in the first week of March and probably allow to reduce impact percentages.
ESA has estimated that there is a 90% of probability of completely ruling out a possible impact of YR4 before it is too far to observe it, something that will happen in early May. The SMPAG will then meet to, if necessary, Pose diversion actionslike the one that was carried out with the mission Dartwhich changed the asteroid trajectory Dimorphos After impacting it in 2022.